* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/10/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 81 72 62 45 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 87 81 72 62 45 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 86 76 65 57 46 41 41 44 50 54 54 51 48 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 38 35 29 31 22 12 9 7 3 7 13 18 18 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 7 4 0 4 0 -4 -8 -5 -2 -1 -3 -2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 217 205 185 181 193 181 171 170 178 281 294 304 301 296 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 25.1 23.3 23.1 22.6 21.1 19.2 20.4 23.1 23.1 22.3 21.1 20.2 19.1 18.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 109 94 90 87 80 74 79 92 91 87 82 78 75 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 94 81 76 74 69 66 70 77 77 74 71 69 67 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.3 -48.8 -48.4 -48.7 -49.2 -49.1 -49.7 -49.9 -50.3 -50.9 -51.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 2.1 2.2 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 66 65 59 58 62 69 72 75 71 70 69 69 66 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 49 49 45 42 36 33 30 27 25 24 23 20 18 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 171 190 215 236 241 232 234 265 230 205 176 143 106 68 98 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 47 52 -10 23 27 39 36 28 25 6 9 12 33 42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 27 -22 -13 -12 -9 -3 -6 -5 -7 -2 3 9 14 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 746 578 424 381 346 335 369 464 652 816 956 1090 1222 1320 1390 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.0 41.5 43.0 43.5 44.0 44.6 44.9 45.2 45.3 45.5 45.7 46.2 47.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.3 53.0 51.8 51.3 50.9 50.0 49.1 47.5 44.9 42.6 40.6 38.6 36.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 18 12 6 5 4 5 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 34 CX,CY: 20/ 28 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -12. -19. -28. -39. -48. -57. -62. -67. -71. -76. -78. -79. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -14. -10. -7. -2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -13. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -36. -39. -43. -44. -45. -43. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -18. -28. -45. -58. -70. -78. -84. -88. -92. -98.-106.-112.-113.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 40.0 54.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/10/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/10/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/10/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 8( 19) 0( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 81 72 62 45 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 83 74 64 47 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 77 67 50 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 70 53 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 54 41 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 59 46 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT