* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/10/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 90 84 75 58 45 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 92 90 84 75 58 45 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 93 90 78 66 50 43 41 44 49 53 55 53 52 50 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 31 36 37 31 19 17 10 8 8 6 7 8 8 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 16 12 7 6 -1 -4 -6 -7 -6 -4 -2 -5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 214 219 205 189 190 196 175 198 172 189 226 266 275 305 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.7 25.4 23.8 23.1 22.8 21.8 19.1 21.8 23.3 22.8 22.1 20.8 20.7 20.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 111 97 91 88 83 75 85 93 90 86 80 79 78 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 123 96 83 77 74 71 67 73 78 76 73 69 69 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.7 -49.2 -48.3 -48.2 -48.9 -49.0 -49.3 -49.5 -49.7 -50.3 -51.3 -52.0 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.9 2.7 3.5 3.6 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.8 3.4 2.1 1.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 62 57 58 63 69 74 74 70 68 64 61 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 47 50 48 45 40 36 32 29 28 25 24 22 19 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 164 183 194 222 252 259 254 262 245 237 199 174 148 117 92 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 42 70 53 0 4 5 32 52 24 16 2 -10 5 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 1 28 12 -9 -9 -5 -3 -9 -15 -5 -3 2 2 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 973 839 611 496 389 362 336 388 516 678 845 979 1075 1191 1303 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.1 39.2 41.2 42.3 43.3 43.8 44.4 44.8 45.0 45.2 45.5 45.9 46.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.8 55.1 53.4 52.6 51.9 51.0 50.3 48.9 46.9 44.6 42.2 40.2 38.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 24 18 12 8 4 4 6 7 9 8 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 25 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -23. -34. -44. -52. -57. -62. -67. -72. -74. -75. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -14. -11. -7. -4. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -15. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 4. 2. -3. -8. -15. -19. -23. -28. -30. -33. -36. -37. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 16. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -6. -15. -32. -45. -57. -65. -72. -78. -80. -84. -90. -95. -97. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 37.1 56.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/10/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/10/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/10/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 5( 26) 0( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 92 90 84 75 58 45 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 87 81 72 55 42 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 80 71 54 41 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 71 54 41 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 54 41 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 92 83 77 74 66 53 41 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 92 90 81 75 71 58 46 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS