* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/09/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 95 93 87 69 56 45 34 26 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 93 95 93 87 69 56 45 34 26 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 94 97 94 82 58 45 40 40 42 48 52 52 52 51 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 20 32 36 32 28 19 13 9 9 9 6 3 10 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 8 15 15 6 6 0 -6 -8 -7 -7 -5 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 182 197 214 220 202 184 194 186 174 185 180 175 241 324 323 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.0 27.6 26.4 23.7 22.8 21.7 20.0 18.8 21.8 23.6 22.2 21.7 21.5 21.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 142 136 122 98 89 83 76 74 85 95 86 83 83 83 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 130 121 106 84 76 70 67 66 74 80 73 71 71 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.1 -49.5 -48.9 -48.2 -48.6 -49.0 -49.1 -49.4 -49.4 -49.8 -50.8 -51.8 -52.2 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.9 2.7 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.2 2.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 62 64 62 55 59 66 70 72 67 65 62 57 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 41 46 49 48 42 38 34 30 27 24 23 21 19 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 155 168 187 205 226 252 234 239 259 233 206 175 143 117 81 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 36 37 75 63 28 31 32 17 31 26 5 0 -3 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 9 19 23 3 -17 -6 -7 -7 -8 -6 -4 -1 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1074 967 834 673 480 342 314 311 388 548 769 930 1013 1153 1311 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.9 36.9 38.9 40.7 42.4 43.9 44.6 45.2 45.3 45.3 45.4 45.6 46.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.8 57.7 55.7 54.1 52.6 51.3 50.4 49.7 48.5 46.3 43.3 41.0 39.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 26 24 21 15 7 4 4 6 9 9 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 17 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 22 CX,CY: 16/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -18. -29. -40. -48. -54. -59. -64. -68. -71. -72. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -14. -11. -8. -5. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -17. -22. -25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 7. 7. 3. -1. -6. -13. -17. -22. -25. -27. -30. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 3. -3. -21. -34. -45. -56. -64. -71. -74. -77. -82. -89. -91. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 34.9 59.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/09/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/09/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/09/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 17( 27) 10( 34) 3( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 93 95 93 87 69 56 45 34 26 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 91 89 83 65 52 41 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 78 60 47 36 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 74 56 43 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 53 40 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 93 84 78 75 65 52 41 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 93 95 86 80 76 63 52 41 33 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS