* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/09/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 91 94 93 79 67 56 45 35 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 88 91 94 93 79 67 56 45 35 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 88 94 97 93 66 49 41 39 41 46 51 52 51 50 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 22 36 39 36 20 14 8 10 15 11 3 10 14 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 8 8 17 7 4 0 -6 -7 -7 -6 -7 -4 -5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 205 196 195 213 218 196 178 197 181 210 181 162 184 307 286 294 283 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.0 27.5 25.2 22.8 22.0 20.0 19.0 20.1 23.1 22.5 21.1 21.7 22.0 19.5 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 142 136 110 91 85 76 74 79 92 88 82 84 85 79 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 130 123 96 77 72 67 66 70 78 75 71 72 73 71 69 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -50.7 -50.2 -49.4 -48.8 -47.7 -48.3 -48.5 -48.5 -48.5 -48.5 -49.2 -50.3 -51.5 -52.9 -53.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.9 2.4 3.5 3.4 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.5 2.8 1.8 2.0 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 63 59 60 62 57 57 62 68 69 70 69 66 62 60 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 39 47 50 46 41 36 33 28 25 23 21 19 15 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 126 157 163 181 192 243 258 254 256 250 221 196 157 122 87 46 44 200 MB DIV 40 58 48 55 61 -1 28 17 27 40 25 25 -11 -15 7 31 63 700-850 TADV 4 15 1 -13 10 0 -6 0 0 -5 -13 -5 0 4 3 12 14 LAND (KM) 1163 1037 944 794 589 336 312 280 331 474 703 893 1027 1178 1324 1441 1516 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 35.3 37.1 39.3 41.4 43.8 44.5 45.5 45.6 45.5 45.6 45.8 46.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.9 59.8 57.8 55.8 53.9 51.9 50.6 49.9 49.1 47.2 44.1 41.4 39.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 25 26 26 20 10 5 4 5 9 10 9 7 7 6 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 21 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 18 CX,CY: 9/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -5. -13. -22. -32. -40. -45. -50. -55. -59. -62. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -13. -11. -9. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -19. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 7. 10. 9. 5. -1. -6. -13. -19. -22. -25. -28. -31. -33. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 8. -6. -18. -29. -40. -50. -60. -67. -73. -79. -88. -94.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 33.4 61.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/09/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 9.5% 7.1% 6.9% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 3.4% 2.6% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/09/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/09/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 14( 32) 7( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 91 94 93 79 67 56 45 35 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 87 90 89 75 63 52 41 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 84 83 69 57 46 35 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 60 48 37 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 52 40 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 62 50 39 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 88 91 82 76 72 60 49 38 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS