* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/09/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 91 95 100 94 79 66 53 42 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 87 91 95 100 94 79 66 53 42 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 91 97 101 85 59 46 41 40 43 48 51 51 51 49 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 15 24 31 37 30 22 15 11 13 16 11 3 17 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 7 11 15 8 4 -2 -6 -8 -6 -8 -4 -2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 302 225 200 201 218 207 189 202 197 202 196 190 177 318 342 324 271 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.4 27.6 24.4 22.9 21.3 18.9 19.3 20.9 22.4 20.9 21.2 22.8 21.6 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 148 147 136 103 90 82 74 74 81 89 82 82 89 84 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 136 134 121 88 76 71 66 66 70 76 72 71 75 73 73 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -50.7 -50.2 -49.5 -48.1 -48.1 -48.3 -48.5 -48.6 -48.5 -49.2 -50.4 -51.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.6 2.6 2.5 2.2 3.1 2.7 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 2.1 2.2 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 68 63 59 60 62 58 60 66 68 68 65 67 58 55 61 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 36 39 47 49 42 38 34 30 26 24 23 22 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 91 129 159 164 179 214 259 263 257 260 207 191 168 135 92 76 71 200 MB DIV 20 49 54 46 64 56 33 19 20 47 34 13 5 -2 28 22 26 700-850 TADV 11 10 8 -1 1 10 -12 1 -2 -13 -18 -13 -2 -1 1 6 13 LAND (KM) 1230 1160 1048 952 834 484 358 347 397 484 582 762 1034 1200 1294 1443 1657 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 33.6 35.2 37.1 38.9 42.4 44.0 44.6 45.6 45.9 45.9 46.2 47.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.2 61.5 59.7 57.7 55.7 52.1 50.6 49.8 48.2 46.9 45.6 43.0 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 22 23 24 23 16 7 6 6 4 7 11 10 7 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 20 26 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -9. -18. -26. -35. -41. -46. -51. -56. -59. -61. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -12. -12. -10. -7. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -18. -22. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 10. 13. 9. 4. -1. -7. -14. -17. -20. -21. -23. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 9. -6. -19. -32. -43. -54. -61. -66. -71. -78. -86. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 31.9 63.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/09/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 11.4% 8.1% 7.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 4.4% 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 35.0% 27.0% 21.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/09/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/09/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 22( 38) 16( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 87 91 95 100 94 79 66 53 42 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 88 92 97 91 76 63 50 39 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 85 90 84 69 56 43 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 80 74 59 46 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 45 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 87 78 72 69 63 48 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 87 91 82 76 72 57 44 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS