* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/09/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 90 94 98 99 86 67 53 43 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 86 90 94 98 99 86 67 53 43 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 89 96 104 101 69 49 39 36 37 41 45 46 46 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 12 21 40 40 41 20 21 18 17 12 5 14 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 4 11 14 14 5 7 0 -7 -8 -7 -5 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 234 285 224 197 195 222 223 202 212 205 195 179 161 133 324 337 340 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 25.8 23.9 21.9 19.2 18.8 20.9 23.4 21.6 22.0 22.7 22.6 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 152 149 146 115 97 85 74 72 81 95 85 84 88 90 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 141 139 137 134 100 82 73 66 65 70 81 74 71 74 77 77 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -50.8 -50.4 -49.5 -48.0 -48.7 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -50.6 -51.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.3 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.4 3.0 4.2 4.7 4.2 2.9 3.0 2.7 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 59 64 68 66 62 66 56 57 60 63 64 59 56 47 49 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 34 36 41 49 45 38 34 31 28 25 22 20 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 76 86 121 150 157 183 205 207 193 210 212 185 145 108 86 58 39 200 MB DIV 10 20 44 78 53 69 -8 25 20 43 38 32 22 27 13 4 9 700-850 TADV 8 8 13 9 0 -4 32 20 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 -3 1 2 11 LAND (KM) 1203 1238 1168 1051 968 633 401 368 369 415 522 721 1018 1171 1216 1379 1679 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 32.0 33.4 35.2 36.9 41.0 43.3 44.2 45.4 45.7 45.4 45.5 46.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.3 63.0 61.8 59.7 57.7 53.3 51.4 50.0 48.7 47.9 46.6 43.9 39.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 21 24 25 20 10 7 5 3 7 12 11 4 5 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 23 20 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -15. -23. -32. -38. -43. -48. -53. -56. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -6. -10. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 5. 13. 11. 4. -1. -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -27. -30. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 13. 14. 1. -18. -32. -42. -52. -60. -68. -75. -84. -93.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.6 64.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/09/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.20 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.4% 8.2% 7.5% 5.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.7% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 8.0% 9.0% 7.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/09/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/09/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 21( 37) 21( 51) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 90 94 98 99 86 67 53 43 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 88 92 96 97 84 65 51 41 31 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 85 89 90 77 58 44 34 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 79 80 67 48 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 67 54 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 65 52 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 86 90 81 75 71 58 39 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS