* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/08/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 97 101 104 110 99 78 59 46 35 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 93 97 101 104 110 99 78 59 46 35 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 92 95 101 109 117 87 57 43 38 39 42 46 49 49 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 5 9 15 35 41 40 28 20 13 12 14 11 4 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 3 7 10 15 9 9 4 -4 -2 -4 -4 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 255 254 242 211 191 218 213 197 205 215 206 193 176 167 196 191 197 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.5 27.6 24.4 20.0 19.4 19.0 19.3 20.4 20.8 19.4 20.7 19.1 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 156 151 148 136 103 79 75 74 76 81 83 79 83 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 138 141 137 136 122 90 70 66 66 68 72 74 71 74 70 69 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -50.6 -49.4 -48.2 -48.3 -48.6 -49.9 -50.2 -50.1 -51.0 -52.4 -53.4 -54.8 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.5 2.3 3.2 2.4 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.4 2.7 1.8 1.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 8 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 64 69 64 60 64 67 65 71 74 74 71 63 48 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 36 38 49 49 43 38 34 31 28 27 26 25 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 65 87 107 128 139 168 188 204 196 210 223 235 176 128 73 26 -11 200 MB DIV 28 2 23 46 77 57 61 35 30 37 58 56 42 30 16 26 4 700-850 TADV 0 11 14 16 8 -18 -2 -19 -14 -2 -8 -13 -18 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1225 1210 1203 1134 1038 815 462 427 437 486 590 779 1070 1377 1532 1260 970 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 31.0 32.3 33.8 35.3 39.2 42.7 44.5 45.5 46.1 46.5 47.0 47.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.7 64.0 63.2 61.4 59.7 55.5 51.5 48.6 47.7 46.8 45.2 42.5 38.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 18 21 23 24 18 10 5 5 8 12 14 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 22 21 20 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -15. -25. -34. -41. -47. -52. -58. -61. -64. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -9. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -16. -18. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 11. 13. 7. 0. -6. -12. -17. -19. -19. -20. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 20. 9. -12. -31. -44. -55. -65. -72. -78. -83. -87. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 29.7 64.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/08/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 407.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 13.3% 9.3% 8.5% 6.6% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 9.1% 5.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 7.5% 5.1% 3.7% 2.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 14.0% 14.0% 8.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/08/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/08/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 20( 30) 26( 48) 29( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 93 97 101 104 110 99 78 59 46 35 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 93 97 100 106 95 74 55 42 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 90 93 99 88 67 48 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 83 89 78 57 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 77 66 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 93 84 78 75 75 64 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 93 97 88 82 78 67 46 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS