* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/08/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 101 105 109 115 112 94 69 52 38 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 96 101 105 109 115 112 94 69 52 38 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 95 99 104 110 122 106 71 49 40 37 39 41 43 44 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 6 7 24 40 42 41 29 24 27 25 21 20 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 4 2 10 11 12 10 3 -1 -4 -4 -3 -2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 253 162 251 259 192 194 217 228 222 232 223 226 219 215 216 201 176 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.4 25.8 22.7 20.2 20.1 20.3 21.1 21.0 20.3 20.1 18.6 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 153 156 152 147 116 92 78 76 78 84 84 80 80 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 136 138 138 134 102 79 69 66 68 74 75 71 71 71 69 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -50.0 -49.3 -48.0 -48.6 -50.0 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.6 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.8 3.3 2.9 2.3 1.2 0.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 8 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 62 61 66 69 61 63 57 56 58 60 65 66 49 40 34 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 34 35 43 49 45 37 33 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 39 66 76 101 122 156 180 173 172 163 156 167 157 144 116 97 112 200 MB DIV 23 24 8 30 63 69 50 8 28 11 11 38 61 44 32 12 19 700-850 TADV -2 2 17 5 6 -20 0 -2 0 6 -1 -2 -9 -12 -18 -40 -39 LAND (KM) 1093 1226 1211 1236 1173 939 633 413 429 470 515 688 1021 1298 1534 1423 999 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.8 30.9 32.2 33.4 37.2 41.0 43.6 44.9 45.4 45.6 46.2 47.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.3 64.6 64.0 62.8 61.6 57.6 53.5 50.2 48.2 47.3 46.6 44.0 39.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 16 20 25 22 14 7 3 6 14 15 11 11 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 30 21 20 22 22 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -13. -21. -30. -38. -43. -49. -54. -58. -61. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -10. -10. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 12. 2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -20. -21. -22. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 25. 22. 4. -21. -38. -52. -62. -71. -78. -83. -88. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.6 65.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/08/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.15 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 20.3% 17.3% 12.0% 8.1% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.9% 39.0% 31.0% 17.1% 7.2% 4.0% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 17.8% 6.1% 1.7% 6.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.7% 21.8% 16.6% 11.9% 5.4% 4.8% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 19.0% 11.0% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/08/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/08/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 23( 32) 28( 51) 31( 66) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 96 101 105 109 115 112 94 69 52 38 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 94 98 102 108 105 87 62 45 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 90 94 100 97 79 54 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 84 90 87 69 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 77 74 56 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 96 87 81 78 80 77 59 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 96 101 92 86 82 79 61 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS