* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/08/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 101 105 107 112 116 107 85 67 51 41 31 25 23 20 18 V (KT) LAND 90 96 101 105 107 112 116 107 85 67 51 41 31 25 23 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 90 97 102 106 110 122 123 95 61 46 41 41 41 42 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 5 1 7 8 14 31 36 38 33 14 24 13 10 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 4 3 5 11 13 5 9 7 0 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 272 212 256 247 179 220 220 214 220 227 249 261 227 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.0 27.9 26.3 22.2 23.4 23.7 23.8 21.3 20.8 20.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 153 155 159 156 140 120 88 93 95 97 84 81 78 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 134 137 143 142 126 103 77 78 79 82 74 71 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -50.7 -49.1 -48.6 -48.6 -49.5 -51.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 7 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 59 61 61 65 65 64 67 69 67 69 71 65 55 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 34 34 34 38 48 47 40 36 31 29 25 23 24 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 37 57 71 90 151 170 173 166 144 131 104 68 77 73 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 15 10 24 39 88 53 88 40 33 64 43 40 30 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 1 18 9 19 16 11 -17 -12 1 4 15 4 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 995 1109 1223 1242 1251 1082 886 567 525 604 700 860 1126 1337 1494 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.7 29.6 30.8 32.0 34.9 38.5 41.8 43.8 44.8 45.2 45.9 46.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.1 64.6 63.7 62.8 59.6 55.4 51.1 47.8 45.8 44.3 41.8 37.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 14 17 22 24 20 12 7 8 12 12 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 29 21 21 24 23 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -9. -17. -24. -31. -36. -42. -47. -52. -53. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 16. 17. 9. 2. -6. -9. -15. -18. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 17. 22. 26. 17. -5. -23. -39. -49. -59. -65. -67. -70. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 27.7 65.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/08/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 441.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.48 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 21.2% 17.9% 13.1% 8.1% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.7% 43.1% 34.6% 20.2% 8.9% 11.7% 2.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 12.5% 9.1% 2.9% 4.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.5% 24.5% 18.5% 12.6% 6.0% 7.7% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 24.0% 40.0% 35.0% 29.0% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/08/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/08/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 23( 32) 27( 51) 30( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 96 101 105 107 112 116 107 85 67 51 41 31 25 23 20 18 18HR AGO 90 89 94 98 100 105 109 100 78 60 44 34 24 18 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 90 92 97 101 92 70 52 36 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 82 87 91 82 60 42 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 76 80 71 49 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 96 87 81 78 79 83 74 52 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 96 101 92 86 82 86 77 55 37 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS