* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/08/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 86 91 94 100 107 110 98 78 59 46 39 28 21 17 15 V (KT) LAND 80 83 86 91 94 100 107 110 98 78 59 46 39 28 21 17 15 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 87 91 96 109 122 111 79 52 40 36 37 37 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 9 2 4 6 23 37 41 44 31 23 27 20 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 2 3 5 6 14 12 1 8 0 4 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 256 262 207 239 207 210 222 227 208 222 231 257 249 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.1 27.0 21.3 23.0 22.8 22.2 21.6 20.3 19.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 157 152 155 154 143 128 86 91 90 88 86 80 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 137 138 133 137 140 130 113 76 77 76 76 75 70 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -50.3 -49.0 -48.3 -49.2 -50.6 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.6 2.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 61 63 62 70 64 64 62 68 66 69 70 69 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 31 32 34 41 49 47 40 32 28 28 24 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 9 32 55 77 140 170 179 186 193 174 149 92 76 109 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 18 15 19 10 63 69 72 26 56 28 58 58 51 35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 6 10 15 14 35 40 -6 -9 -8 11 4 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 908 1007 1107 1235 1230 1191 1007 723 546 560 614 762 1027 1247 1420 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.7 28.6 29.7 30.7 33.3 36.6 40.2 42.8 44.4 45.3 46.2 47.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.3 65.0 64.5 63.9 61.3 57.4 52.8 48.9 46.7 45.4 43.0 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 14 20 24 23 15 9 8 12 13 9 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 33 29 21 21 23 19 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -13. -18. -23. -28. -33. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 12. 22. 20. 11. -0. -7. -8. -13. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 20. 27. 30. 18. -2. -21. -34. -41. -52. -59. -63. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 26.8 65.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/08/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 17.0% 11.1% 10.1% 7.8% 11.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 29.5% 21.0% 10.1% 4.9% 10.6% 4.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.0% 4.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 16.9% 11.1% 7.1% 4.3% 7.3% 5.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 19.0% 33.0% 27.0% 20.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/08/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/08/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 16( 30) 22( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 86 91 94 100 107 110 98 78 59 46 39 28 21 17 15 18HR AGO 80 79 82 87 90 96 103 106 94 74 55 42 35 24 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 81 84 90 97 100 88 68 49 36 29 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 73 79 86 89 77 57 38 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 67 74 77 65 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 83 86 77 71 67 74 77 65 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS