* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/07/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 83 88 93 99 106 111 102 80 60 39 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 79 83 88 93 99 106 111 102 80 60 39 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 83 87 92 104 118 120 94 59 40 31 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 10 4 4 10 30 48 51 44 35 43 41 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 0 0 7 4 11 13 5 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 253 253 254 256 255 201 233 234 235 239 254 254 266 276 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.4 29.1 27.9 26.0 20.7 19.2 18.8 17.4 18.0 18.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 156 157 154 161 158 140 117 82 75 73 72 76 78 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 136 136 135 145 145 126 100 72 67 66 66 70 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -50.9 -49.7 -48.4 -48.5 -50.5 -53.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.4 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 62 62 64 67 66 58 54 46 43 44 48 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 32 34 35 39 46 47 40 33 25 22 19 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 15 13 39 54 89 158 184 192 160 96 34 0 -45 -85 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 27 25 19 2 46 80 70 76 13 37 22 20 9 6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 5 13 34 54 61 40 17 15 11 16 17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 836 917 1000 1105 1209 1261 1106 923 550 398 356 369 428 681 1083 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.5 31.6 34.7 38.3 41.9 44.3 45.7 46.6 47.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.6 65.5 65.4 65.0 64.7 63.0 59.5 55.0 51.4 49.3 48.7 48.2 47.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 17 23 24 18 11 6 5 9 16 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 39 34 29 22 23 24 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 18. 20. 10. -0. -12. -17. -21. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 24. 31. 36. 27. 5. -15. -36. -50. -61. -67. -70. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 26.1 65.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/07/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.26 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 23.0% 18.4% 16.2% 10.4% 11.9% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 16.1% 32.3% 25.4% 15.8% 7.1% 14.3% 8.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.4% 9.3% 2.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 13.1% 21.5% 15.6% 11.6% 6.1% 8.9% 6.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 25.0% 83.0% 73.0% 56.0% 25.0% 33.0% 24.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/07/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/07/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 14( 26) 21( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 83 88 93 99 106 111 102 80 60 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 78 83 88 94 101 106 97 75 55 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 81 87 94 99 90 68 48 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 70 76 83 88 79 57 37 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 79 83 74 68 64 71 76 67 45 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS