* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/07/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 86 90 97 103 110 109 97 75 58 46 35 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 86 90 97 103 110 109 97 75 58 46 35 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 82 87 92 102 113 125 111 81 52 40 35 35 35 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 18 16 17 9 5 9 17 33 39 41 31 30 35 38 36 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 0 0 7 0 14 16 15 2 4 3 -2 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 269 265 258 258 256 250 215 217 219 232 223 219 217 227 232 236 241 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.2 29.0 28.2 27.7 24.6 22.7 22.7 22.7 23.5 22.3 20.3 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 159 165 166 156 155 144 137 104 90 86 87 96 90 83 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 139 144 145 137 140 132 121 90 77 71 73 81 79 74 76 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -49.9 -48.7 -48.0 -49.6 -50.8 -51.4 -51.6 -52.2 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.6 1.5 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 8 6 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 57 60 64 69 68 66 60 62 59 61 56 56 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 30 31 35 37 44 48 46 37 31 27 24 21 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 13 14 13 34 69 125 158 181 188 168 125 137 112 64 32 37 200 MB DIV 6 14 20 13 16 27 66 59 60 34 53 18 44 43 11 29 34 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -1 -3 13 11 24 33 77 23 -2 0 -2 -9 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 760 828 898 990 1084 1223 1232 1069 822 572 530 545 535 673 965 1337 1524 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.1 26.8 27.7 28.5 30.4 32.7 35.8 39.3 42.2 44.1 45.0 44.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.8 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.3 64.2 61.8 58.0 53.3 49.6 47.4 46.5 46.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 13 19 24 23 16 9 2 4 12 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 52 54 44 37 33 21 24 21 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 19. 24. 22. 9. 0. -5. -10. -14. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 28. 35. 34. 22. 0. -17. -29. -40. -51. -63. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.4 65.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/07/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 16.1% 10.4% 9.8% 7.5% 10.4% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 19.3% 14.4% 9.4% 3.8% 11.7% 7.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 4.1% 5.4% 2.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 9.5% 13.6% 8.9% 6.9% 3.9% 7.5% 6.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 15.0% 45.0% 38.0% 33.0% 7.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/07/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/07/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 12( 23) 20( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 82 86 90 97 103 110 109 97 75 58 46 35 24 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 78 82 86 93 99 106 105 93 71 54 42 31 20 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 75 79 86 92 99 98 86 64 47 35 24 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 76 82 89 88 76 54 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT