* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/07/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 83 87 96 101 107 107 101 78 57 46 40 29 21 N/A V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 83 87 96 101 107 107 101 78 57 46 40 29 21 N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 74 78 82 87 97 110 123 121 94 60 43 37 34 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 18 15 14 6 5 14 40 41 36 43 37 33 35 36 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -1 -4 -2 -1 5 7 11 14 8 0 4 5 1 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 264 272 265 258 255 246 259 190 221 224 245 272 304 307 321 303 295 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.3 29.2 29.3 28.0 26.5 24.7 23.8 23.1 22.3 21.7 20.9 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 156 162 167 158 158 161 141 123 105 98 93 89 86 82 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 136 141 146 139 142 148 127 106 90 83 79 76 74 72 73 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.1 -49.9 -49.3 -50.6 -50.5 -51.3 -52.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 2 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 56 57 65 69 70 62 57 55 44 40 41 45 47 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 28 28 33 34 39 45 49 39 31 30 31 28 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 3 4 11 14 18 56 90 126 124 110 93 39 -99 -115 -123 -98 -90 200 MB DIV 4 6 16 22 8 30 36 94 36 64 65 47 -7 -22 -28 -15 0 700-850 TADV 5 3 5 1 0 4 8 11 -33 -58 -34 -18 9 6 9 19 30 LAND (KM) 718 781 845 934 1025 1219 1245 1075 915 622 668 897 1161 1379 1580 1535 1382 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.7 26.3 27.2 28.0 29.8 32.1 35.1 38.5 41.5 43.6 44.7 44.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.9 65.8 65.8 65.6 65.5 64.7 62.7 59.3 54.7 50.2 45.8 41.9 38.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 12 17 23 24 21 17 13 12 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 55 51 39 36 23 25 30 25 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -0. -3. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 15. 24. 29. 16. 3. 1. 1. -3. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 31. 37. 37. 31. 8. -13. -24. -30. -41. -49. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 25.0 65.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/07/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 360.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.1% 19.8% 15.7% 10.8% 8.1% 10.9% 10.6% 9.0% Logistic: 17.0% 22.9% 18.5% 15.5% 5.6% 16.2% 13.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 6.6% 7.6% 3.5% 4.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 14.9% 16.7% 12.6% 10.3% 5.0% 9.2% 8.0% 3.3% DTOPS: 17.0% 57.0% 46.0% 45.0% 15.0% 26.0% 38.0% 18.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/07/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/07/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 10( 19) 19( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 78 83 87 96 101 107 107 101 78 57 46 40 29 21 DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 73 78 82 91 96 102 102 96 73 52 41 35 24 16 DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 71 75 84 89 95 95 89 66 45 34 28 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 73 78 84 84 78 55 34 23 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT