* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/07/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 76 79 83 87 94 99 102 102 90 72 50 33 24 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 70 74 76 79 83 87 94 99 102 102 90 72 50 33 24 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 83 87 96 104 111 117 103 73 50 36 29 26 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 28 27 20 14 15 11 12 25 50 45 44 49 43 36 33 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 2 0 9 6 4 -1 -2 -5 -6 2 4 SHEAR DIR 260 263 271 263 255 257 248 222 209 224 244 248 265 274 283 271 271 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.0 23.3 23.9 22.5 22.3 19.8 21.7 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 154 157 161 162 157 154 148 129 97 99 90 88 78 86 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 133 136 140 141 138 140 135 113 85 85 78 76 70 74 72 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -50.7 -49.7 -49.2 -50.3 -50.2 -52.5 -55.2 -56.5 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.3 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 56 57 56 61 65 72 66 57 48 44 36 29 19 23 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 27 28 31 36 38 42 48 46 39 29 22 19 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -1 3 9 15 35 94 131 142 124 97 97 73 22 -136 -191 -162 200 MB DIV 40 4 7 7 15 15 31 72 85 55 20 39 -14 -30 -36 -28 -20 700-850 TADV 5 6 6 4 0 0 10 20 3 -26 -55 -14 -8 -15 -19 -31 -23 LAND (KM) 678 747 807 876 946 1156 1209 1183 956 658 555 759 1026 1256 1451 1587 1381 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.3 25.9 26.6 27.2 29.1 31.1 33.4 37.2 40.8 43.4 45.0 45.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.8 65.8 65.8 65.6 65.5 65.0 63.9 61.2 57.0 52.4 47.8 43.6 39.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 10 14 21 25 23 19 15 13 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 50 55 45 37 28 21 24 20 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -5. -4. -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -24. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 14. 20. 28. 26. 15. 0. -10. -14. -15. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 24. 29. 32. 32. 20. 2. -20. -37. -46. -51. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 24.6 65.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/07/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.7% 16.5% 10.5% 10.1% 7.5% 9.8% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 17.4% 13.6% 12.4% 3.7% 14.7% 7.5% 2.3% Bayesian: 7.7% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.4% 13.6% 9.3% 8.8% 3.9% 8.4% 5.6% 0.8% DTOPS: 16.0% 34.0% 29.0% 25.0% 5.0% 6.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/07/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/07/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 9( 17) 10( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 76 79 83 87 94 99 102 102 90 72 50 33 24 19 DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 71 74 78 82 89 94 97 97 85 67 45 28 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 73 77 84 89 92 92 80 62 40 23 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 64 68 75 80 83 83 71 53 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT