* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/06/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 67 71 76 84 92 100 109 103 78 57 35 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 67 71 76 84 92 100 109 103 78 57 35 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 65 68 71 80 89 100 112 113 93 60 40 31 26 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 23 30 26 20 23 8 9 9 32 45 42 45 54 54 54 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -4 -4 -5 -6 -2 3 8 11 16 7 0 -5 0 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 257 268 272 266 261 239 237 200 235 228 235 252 278 298 317 320 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.5 28.0 27.2 25.1 23.8 22.5 19.9 20.8 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 151 153 154 163 159 159 164 142 131 109 98 91 80 83 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 131 132 133 143 140 142 150 128 115 93 84 79 72 73 70 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -50.9 -49.3 -48.6 -48.8 -51.2 -53.2 -53.7 -55.2 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 4 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 57 59 58 64 67 70 67 65 56 49 36 29 20 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 22 24 28 30 34 37 41 50 50 38 28 19 13 11 14 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 -2 0 12 16 42 87 164 168 170 182 118 55 -3 -86 -148 200 MB DIV 49 39 2 3 25 8 27 67 79 54 86 13 21 13 -22 -32 -25 700-850 TADV 4 5 5 6 6 2 5 16 38 54 6 -9 0 0 -6 -1 2 LAND (KM) 601 662 723 784 842 995 1232 1283 1122 972 685 693 886 1145 1448 1520 1260 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.5 25.0 25.6 26.1 27.6 29.6 31.7 34.5 37.7 40.9 43.2 44.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.5 65.3 64.4 62.7 59.6 55.2 50.2 45.8 42.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 9 12 16 21 25 23 17 15 15 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 45 55 53 35 24 23 27 16 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -29. -35. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 17. 23. 34. 35. 18. 3. -10. -18. -20. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 24. 32. 40. 49. 43. 18. -3. -25. -41. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 23.9 65.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/06/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 14.3% 9.1% 8.6% 6.3% 9.0% 8.9% 10.3% Logistic: 4.4% 10.2% 6.8% 4.5% 1.4% 6.9% 4.2% 4.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.4% 5.4% 4.4% 2.6% 5.4% 4.3% 5.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 30.0% 20.0% 13.0% 4.0% 8.0% 13.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/06/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/06/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 64 67 71 76 84 92 100 109 103 78 57 35 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 60 63 67 72 80 88 96 105 99 74 53 31 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 63 68 76 84 92 101 95 70 49 27 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 59 67 75 83 92 86 61 40 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT