* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/06/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 57 57 59 65 74 82 89 97 104 95 71 54 42 31 24 V (KT) LAND 55 55 57 57 59 65 74 82 89 97 104 95 71 54 42 31 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 56 58 65 74 83 91 104 105 79 50 38 34 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 24 22 28 28 18 15 7 8 15 42 45 47 40 50 67 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 1 4 8 15 10 0 0 -2 -14 -6 SHEAR DIR 263 259 258 270 279 269 258 255 244 201 213 212 209 234 235 234 241 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.2 29.0 28.3 28.0 26.0 23.7 23.3 23.8 22.3 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 148 151 154 158 166 156 154 145 141 116 97 93 96 89 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 128 131 134 137 145 137 138 132 125 100 82 78 80 77 74 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -50.6 -48.5 -47.0 -48.0 -50.5 -52.2 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 7 6 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 56 58 58 62 66 71 57 54 46 48 46 47 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 24 23 25 29 33 36 39 44 52 49 38 31 29 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 1 13 18 0 1 14 30 57 108 130 167 197 213 183 94 38 29 200 MB DIV 20 58 46 14 8 13 38 35 80 52 59 5 12 5 -7 -16 -12 700-850 TADV 5 5 4 5 4 3 1 12 21 -1 -38 -35 -9 6 -4 -28 -27 LAND (KM) 556 606 656 712 760 922 1106 1250 1263 1117 878 635 615 738 901 1070 1275 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.0 24.4 24.9 25.4 26.9 28.5 30.5 32.6 35.4 38.8 41.6 43.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.8 65.8 65.8 65.8 65.4 64.8 63.8 61.4 57.8 53.4 49.5 46.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 5 7 8 10 13 17 22 22 18 12 8 9 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 37 44 52 39 31 21 24 21 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -6. -11. -17. -22. -27. -34. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 26. 37. 32. 15. 5. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 2. 4. 10. 19. 27. 34. 42. 49. 40. 16. -1. -13. -24. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.5 65.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/06/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 8.3% 7.3% 4.7% 2.8% 7.7% 0.0% 8.5% Logistic: 1.7% 3.6% 2.4% 1.7% 0.4% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.0% 3.2% 2.1% 1.1% 3.2% 0.8% 3.7% DTOPS: 4.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/06/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/06/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 57 57 59 65 74 82 89 97 104 95 71 54 42 31 24 18HR AGO 55 54 56 56 58 64 73 81 88 96 103 94 70 53 41 30 23 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 53 59 68 76 83 91 98 89 65 48 36 25 18 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 53 62 70 77 85 92 83 59 42 30 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT