* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/06/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 63 65 68 74 82 90 96 105 105 90 72 62 61 54 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 63 65 68 74 82 90 96 105 105 90 72 62 61 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 59 61 66 74 84 96 106 112 96 66 47 42 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 23 22 29 21 17 8 8 11 33 43 27 22 16 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 -1 -3 -5 -4 -3 5 3 7 14 0 1 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 257 260 259 252 267 265 257 224 265 205 212 219 210 235 256 263 256 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.8 29.3 29.2 29.5 28.4 27.6 25.0 23.8 22.9 21.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 149 152 156 165 157 156 163 145 134 105 94 89 83 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 129 129 132 136 144 136 137 144 127 113 88 78 75 73 76 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -49.6 -47.3 -47.7 -49.2 -51.3 -52.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.5 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 57 57 60 60 65 69 69 56 47 42 39 45 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 23 23 25 28 32 36 41 49 53 46 37 33 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -1 3 7 -9 6 13 57 88 134 159 193 197 144 113 95 19 200 MB DIV 23 24 60 39 8 11 29 27 41 74 55 74 -20 -5 -39 -14 6 700-850 TADV 6 3 4 5 6 6 4 3 13 23 -17 17 0 0 0 9 2 LAND (KM) 516 582 647 702 757 889 1073 1255 1269 1134 983 767 495 399 412 453 585 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.3 26.6 28.3 30.0 31.9 34.2 37.0 39.8 42.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.1 64.1 62.6 60.1 56.8 54.0 52.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 8 9 10 13 17 19 16 11 5 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 37 43 50 45 33 23 24 28 20 16 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 35. 41. 29. 15. 8. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 19. 27. 35. 41. 50. 50. 35. 17. 7. 6. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.1 65.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/06/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 13.7% 8.6% 8.1% 5.9% 9.1% 0.0% 8.7% Logistic: 5.7% 10.7% 7.6% 5.7% 1.8% 4.8% 5.3% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.2% 5.5% 4.6% 2.6% 4.6% 1.8% 4.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 14.0% 8.0% 5.0% 1.0% 8.0% 11.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/06/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/06/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 63 65 68 74 82 90 96 105 105 90 72 62 61 54 18HR AGO 55 54 56 60 62 65 71 79 87 93 102 102 87 69 59 58 51 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 57 60 66 74 82 88 97 97 82 64 54 53 46 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 50 56 64 72 78 87 87 72 54 44 43 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT