* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/06/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 64 65 65 72 78 85 92 98 105 95 80 72 66 61 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 64 65 65 72 78 85 92 98 105 95 80 72 66 61 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 64 66 69 76 84 90 100 110 104 83 65 56 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 26 21 23 28 20 14 11 9 15 29 34 30 20 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 0 -1 -4 -4 -1 0 3 12 15 4 -2 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 241 258 265 255 254 274 263 256 252 261 235 239 226 194 201 227 262 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 26.5 24.5 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 146 148 152 158 165 159 156 158 140 137 133 119 100 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 127 127 128 132 138 143 138 137 137 118 113 109 97 83 72 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -50.3 -48.4 -48.4 -49.9 -50.5 -51.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.1 0.9 1.3 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 56 57 58 58 59 63 68 62 61 51 52 54 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 19 20 21 22 28 31 34 38 42 48 45 37 34 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 10 2 -3 4 9 -2 14 28 51 118 190 236 241 218 189 174 155 200 MB DIV 56 33 29 67 32 -3 30 29 45 59 32 57 17 8 -30 34 -40 700-850 TADV 5 9 4 5 4 5 5 1 9 26 36 52 43 13 -17 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 452 500 548 597 647 769 918 1102 1287 1313 1174 1053 931 778 594 490 445 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.9 24.3 25.4 26.8 28.5 30.0 31.9 34.1 36.2 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.5 65.5 65.4 65.3 64.9 63.7 61.7 59.3 57.3 55.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 11 14 14 12 11 11 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 41 37 35 37 52 39 31 23 24 24 19 16 16 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 7. 11. 14. 20. 25. 33. 27. 15. 9. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 12. 18. 25. 32. 38. 45. 36. 21. 12. 6. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 22.5 65.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/06/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.34 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.2% 9.6% 8.9% 6.5% 9.1% 0.0% 7.7% Logistic: 7.5% 11.0% 8.3% 6.2% 1.6% 4.4% 2.7% 2.1% Bayesian: 2.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 9.0% 6.2% 5.1% 2.7% 4.5% 0.9% 3.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/06/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/06/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 2( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 63 64 65 65 72 78 85 92 98 105 95 80 72 66 61 18HR AGO 60 59 61 62 63 63 70 76 83 90 96 103 93 78 70 64 59 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 58 65 71 78 85 91 98 88 73 65 59 54 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 51 58 64 71 78 84 91 81 66 58 52 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT