* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/05/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 60 63 67 72 78 85 92 96 106 107 89 77 70 66 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 60 63 67 72 78 85 92 96 106 107 89 77 70 66 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 60 62 66 72 78 85 93 101 110 97 69 53 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 27 26 21 29 19 21 10 11 14 42 41 22 22 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -3 -5 -5 -4 -3 -4 0 7 6 4 6 -4 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 236 240 256 264 254 268 268 261 255 260 247 251 234 220 204 203 207 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.5 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 146 148 151 155 163 163 155 155 157 143 135 136 140 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 130 128 129 131 134 140 140 132 132 133 118 107 108 113 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -50.7 -49.5 -48.6 -50.2 -51.5 -52.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.6 2.2 1.4 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 56 57 57 60 59 63 68 66 45 47 42 34 32 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 22 26 28 32 35 40 42 52 56 47 40 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR -5 5 0 0 5 -7 13 20 45 90 145 197 166 198 209 149 97 200 MB DIV 51 53 28 36 52 -7 12 15 13 50 69 22 3 -2 -15 -34 -10 700-850 TADV 4 3 4 4 5 5 4 1 5 19 22 33 -6 3 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 387 456 526 580 635 757 879 1010 1179 1269 1284 1196 1115 1079 1077 1038 945 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.2 25.3 26.5 27.6 29.1 30.6 32.1 33.6 35.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.5 65.6 65.6 65.5 65.0 64.5 63.5 61.9 60.1 58.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 9 3 3 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 51 47 40 36 36 50 46 33 27 21 24 25 24 18 19 16 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 24. 28. 41. 45. 30. 20. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 30. 37. 41. 51. 52. 34. 23. 15. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.9 65.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/05/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 11.7% 7.8% 7.4% 5.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 8.1% 5.5% 3.8% 0.9% 3.4% 2.3% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.7% 4.5% 3.7% 2.1% 3.9% 0.8% 0.9% DTOPS: 5.0% 14.0% 9.0% 6.0% 2.0% 9.0% 11.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/05/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/05/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 60 63 67 72 78 85 92 96 106 107 89 77 70 66 18HR AGO 55 54 56 57 60 64 69 75 82 89 93 103 104 86 74 67 63 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 55 59 64 70 77 84 88 98 99 81 69 62 58 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 52 57 63 70 77 81 91 92 74 62 55 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT