* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/05/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 60 62 65 69 76 82 90 93 97 102 97 86 78 69 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 60 62 65 69 76 82 90 93 97 102 97 86 78 69 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 61 62 64 67 73 80 87 95 102 103 87 72 67 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 21 27 26 27 29 19 18 12 13 19 26 29 20 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -4 -6 -5 -4 -1 4 6 12 8 -9 -8 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 257 234 234 253 262 261 270 255 259 246 252 243 259 228 199 192 180 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.4 29.3 28.9 29.0 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 147 146 152 155 158 164 158 157 151 152 136 138 138 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 132 129 128 132 133 135 140 136 135 130 126 109 112 115 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -50.1 -49.0 -49.2 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.4 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 54 56 58 59 60 62 64 63 51 43 52 53 48 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 22 22 25 27 31 34 39 41 44 49 49 43 40 34 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -2 6 3 4 11 6 22 42 70 142 213 280 224 219 220 199 200 MB DIV 24 53 61 29 27 19 17 21 27 41 41 33 70 2 8 -6 27 700-850 TADV 8 5 3 6 4 4 6 3 3 13 24 31 28 11 2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 344 407 471 530 590 723 831 956 1073 1232 1284 1231 1140 1101 1071 997 815 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.3 23.8 25.0 26.1 27.2 28.3 29.6 31.3 33.0 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.5 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.3 65.1 64.4 62.9 61.0 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 11 13 10 5 7 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 46 38 35 45 54 35 33 24 22 24 24 19 19 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 24. 27. 30. 35. 33. 24. 18. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 21. 27. 35. 38. 42. 47. 42. 31. 23. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.5 65.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/05/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 9.6% 8.6% 5.3% 3.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.2% 2.1% 1.8% 0.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.3% 3.6% 2.4% 1.2% 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 13.0% 19.0% 12.0% 8.0% 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/05/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/05/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 58 60 62 65 69 76 82 90 93 97 102 97 86 78 69 18HR AGO 55 54 55 57 59 62 66 73 79 87 90 94 99 94 83 75 66 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 58 62 69 75 83 86 90 95 90 79 71 62 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 50 54 61 67 75 78 82 87 82 71 63 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT