* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/05/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 52 55 60 66 74 77 85 90 95 96 93 84 78 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 52 55 60 66 74 77 85 90 95 96 93 84 78 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 48 49 52 55 59 65 72 80 87 95 98 91 77 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 18 14 17 24 23 28 17 16 10 12 19 28 33 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 3 5 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 2 2 8 2 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 241 252 263 237 231 260 264 277 266 281 283 283 265 252 250 211 189 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 148 146 146 145 148 151 153 156 165 165 158 156 156 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 133 130 129 127 127 130 130 133 142 145 136 130 129 124 122 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.3 -50.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 3 2 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 56 56 57 59 60 59 61 62 64 58 48 38 36 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 16 18 20 22 26 30 32 37 39 43 48 50 44 40 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -8 -18 -4 5 -1 8 8 21 36 48 80 126 158 163 169 139 200 MB DIV 37 18 9 44 57 27 30 13 13 25 15 40 66 59 -22 19 -43 700-850 TADV 0 5 7 6 2 5 3 2 3 4 13 25 24 11 9 3 0 LAND (KM) 192 257 325 385 446 578 678 779 905 999 1112 1313 1322 1223 1220 1147 1022 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.6 27.4 28.3 29.9 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.5 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.8 65.8 65.6 65.1 64.6 63.8 62.6 60.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 12 12 9 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 64 57 55 54 49 36 38 51 38 29 29 26 26 23 25 23 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 18. 24. 27. 31. 35. 35. 26. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 29. 33. 40. 45. 50. 51. 48. 39. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.1 65.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/05/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.3% 8.3% 5.4% 3.5% 7.7% 7.5% 7.4% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.5% 3.0% 1.9% 1.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/05/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/05/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 49 52 55 60 66 74 77 85 90 95 96 93 84 78 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 50 53 58 64 72 75 83 88 93 94 91 82 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 49 54 60 68 71 79 84 89 90 87 78 72 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 41 46 52 60 63 71 76 81 82 79 70 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT