* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/04/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 54 58 63 67 73 77 87 90 96 99 95 89 83 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 54 58 63 67 73 77 87 90 96 99 95 89 83 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 51 55 58 60 63 70 79 89 97 101 98 89 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 16 16 16 23 22 28 17 17 10 12 10 22 21 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 2 1 1 -3 -1 -3 -3 -1 4 3 2 4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 238 229 243 258 236 253 253 266 274 270 280 279 263 250 243 233 202 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 147 147 144 146 150 149 151 159 164 162 157 157 154 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 134 132 130 126 128 129 127 129 135 142 141 134 131 125 117 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.0 -50.3 -49.7 -49.4 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 52 54 57 60 59 62 60 60 61 62 59 53 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 16 17 20 22 25 28 31 37 39 43 47 48 46 43 850 MB ENV VOR 5 10 -7 -18 -6 1 3 2 17 26 51 64 100 148 163 172 170 200 MB DIV 28 37 14 17 41 36 69 16 31 30 45 56 45 49 59 19 54 700-850 TADV 4 0 5 7 6 5 6 3 4 5 8 21 23 17 18 21 10 LAND (KM) 203 238 280 347 416 513 624 758 842 939 1047 1203 1416 1375 1254 1175 1105 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.6 22.2 23.1 24.1 25.3 26.0 26.8 27.7 28.9 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.0 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.6 65.6 65.4 64.8 64.3 63.8 62.7 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 6 5 6 5 4 5 6 9 11 11 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 60 55 52 50 50 40 35 48 45 31 29 29 27 30 24 27 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 25. 28. 32. 35. 33. 28. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 28. 32. 42. 45. 51. 54. 50. 44. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.0 64.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/04/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.7% 8.0% 7.9% 5.9% 8.7% 8.3% 7.7% Logistic: 2.3% 4.7% 3.0% 3.1% 0.9% 3.6% 2.8% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.5% 3.7% 3.7% 2.3% 4.1% 3.7% 3.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 11.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/04/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/04/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 54 58 63 67 73 77 87 90 96 99 95 89 83 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 51 55 60 64 70 74 84 87 93 96 92 86 80 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 50 55 59 65 69 79 82 88 91 87 81 75 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 42 47 51 57 61 71 74 80 83 79 73 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT