* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/04/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 66 72 73 82 87 94 98 100 101 97 93 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 66 72 73 82 87 94 98 100 101 97 93 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 52 57 61 64 68 73 80 88 98 104 103 94 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 11 16 15 14 20 23 23 18 16 10 11 22 27 36 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 4 4 1 5 -2 -4 -4 -5 -2 3 3 2 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 253 245 216 246 257 245 268 257 271 265 284 271 279 247 257 236 239 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 151 149 148 146 145 146 149 151 151 158 164 162 160 155 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 136 136 133 131 128 127 127 129 129 129 137 141 138 135 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 52 54 54 51 53 59 59 60 60 59 60 60 63 62 53 34 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 15 16 20 21 24 25 31 35 40 42 47 52 53 52 850 MB ENV VOR -4 4 11 -12 -21 6 -5 10 9 26 49 64 114 149 184 94 98 200 MB DIV 20 23 41 25 12 38 35 37 15 24 24 14 52 44 61 -25 0 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 3 5 2 4 2 0 2 4 13 22 17 15 7 -2 LAND (KM) 191 209 238 279 325 423 534 645 757 840 926 1046 1246 1425 1462 1356 1218 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.3 23.3 24.3 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.6 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.4 64.8 65.2 65.4 65.6 65.8 65.9 65.9 65.5 65.0 64.4 63.4 62.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 8 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 58 58 58 54 55 53 38 35 48 47 32 31 30 28 33 25 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 11. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 40. 38. 35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 27. 28. 37. 42. 49. 53. 55. 56. 52. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.5 64.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/04/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 12.4% 8.4% 8.2% 6.1% 9.5% 9.4% 9.4% Logistic: 3.1% 7.6% 4.8% 5.0% 1.9% 7.1% 3.6% 2.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.7% 4.4% 4.4% 2.7% 5.5% 4.4% 3.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 13.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/04/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/04/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 53 56 62 66 72 73 82 87 94 98 100 101 97 93 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 53 59 63 69 70 79 84 91 95 97 98 94 90 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 53 57 63 64 73 78 85 89 91 92 88 84 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 44 48 54 55 64 69 76 80 82 83 79 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT