* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/04/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 51 56 63 69 78 83 91 98 98 96 96 98 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 51 56 63 69 78 83 91 98 98 96 96 98 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 47 49 52 56 61 67 76 85 93 98 100 100 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 13 15 17 16 18 16 24 12 15 6 7 8 14 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 5 5 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -3 1 7 5 9 8 -5 SHEAR DIR 246 248 230 227 246 243 251 254 258 264 274 321 279 244 262 226 234 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 153 153 151 151 151 159 159 158 159 171 166 162 162 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 141 136 135 133 132 130 137 137 137 139 150 143 140 140 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -50.0 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.7 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 55 54 57 61 59 59 60 59 62 60 61 60 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 14 14 15 18 21 24 29 31 35 40 41 42 45 49 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -9 -6 2 -17 -11 -6 3 2 21 38 66 65 82 79 93 92 200 MB DIV 7 6 12 29 14 32 52 65 6 21 20 39 27 31 25 63 9 700-850 TADV -2 -1 2 -1 0 6 6 5 3 1 3 7 16 19 18 15 8 LAND (KM) 184 194 226 261 300 400 490 557 651 740 816 934 1126 1326 1448 1344 1233 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.2 22.1 23.1 23.8 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.7 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.5 65.1 65.6 65.9 66.2 66.6 66.8 66.8 66.6 66.0 65.1 64.0 62.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 6 8 9 9 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 62 64 64 61 62 53 40 35 40 44 44 33 36 31 25 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 16. 19. 24. 29. 28. 27. 29. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 24. 33. 38. 46. 53. 53. 51. 51. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.5 64.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/04/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.1% 8.1% 5.3% 3.5% 8.1% 8.5% 9.7% Logistic: 1.3% 2.7% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5% 2.5% 2.8% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 4.0% 3.2% 2.2% 1.3% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/04/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/04/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 48 51 56 63 69 78 83 91 98 98 96 96 98 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 50 55 62 68 77 82 90 97 97 95 95 97 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 46 51 58 64 73 78 86 93 93 91 91 93 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 39 44 51 57 66 71 79 86 86 84 84 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT