* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/04/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 51 52 56 60 65 68 76 84 89 91 94 98 98 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 51 52 56 60 65 68 76 84 89 91 94 98 98 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 51 53 55 57 59 62 66 72 79 87 89 90 89 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 14 15 18 21 19 24 24 15 15 19 17 16 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 -1 3 2 1 0 -2 -5 -2 -2 1 4 6 4 3 SHEAR DIR 229 237 243 232 228 249 239 253 244 257 251 276 272 297 268 272 271 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 157 154 153 151 151 151 160 161 160 163 169 164 162 160 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 142 138 136 134 132 132 139 138 138 143 146 139 139 141 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 54 55 53 59 58 57 57 58 54 42 39 35 39 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 11 13 13 16 18 21 23 28 32 34 37 39 43 44 850 MB ENV VOR 26 8 -7 -5 1 -25 -4 -4 8 18 53 78 102 121 118 54 -12 200 MB DIV 20 11 16 13 31 29 32 65 37 -10 25 21 -11 24 15 5 -5 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -3 1 -1 2 3 4 0 1 2 9 3 6 4 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 225 207 213 235 267 378 447 533 645 738 832 957 1162 1308 1433 1334 1106 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.9 22.7 23.6 24.8 25.5 26.0 27.0 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.9 64.6 65.3 65.7 66.1 66.5 66.9 66.9 66.9 66.4 65.5 64.5 63.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 6 8 8 7 9 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 56 58 64 63 63 56 44 36 40 44 45 31 30 28 26 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 22. 23. 24. 26. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 31. 39. 44. 46. 49. 53. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 63.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/04/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.5% 8.3% 8.0% 5.8% 8.9% 9.4% 10.8% Logistic: 2.2% 5.3% 2.7% 2.4% 0.8% 4.4% 4.4% 3.7% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.2% 3.7% 3.5% 2.2% 4.5% 4.6% 4.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/04/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/04/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 49 51 52 56 60 65 68 76 84 89 91 94 98 98 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 48 49 53 57 62 65 73 81 86 88 91 95 95 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 45 49 53 58 61 69 77 82 84 87 91 91 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 38 42 46 51 54 62 70 75 77 80 84 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT