* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 50 52 52 57 61 66 67 73 79 88 90 95 96 94 V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 50 52 52 57 61 66 67 73 79 88 90 95 96 94 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 52 53 54 56 60 62 63 67 73 81 89 94 91 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 18 16 19 14 24 25 28 18 14 15 22 18 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 3 0 3 2 2 -2 -1 -4 0 1 -2 1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 224 226 228 239 228 242 239 245 244 257 253 259 267 267 270 285 289 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 156 156 154 153 151 152 160 161 159 159 169 167 163 162 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 143 141 138 136 134 134 139 136 136 139 147 143 140 139 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 52 53 52 51 54 56 56 57 57 55 58 55 50 39 33 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 11 13 13 16 18 21 22 27 29 35 37 41 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 24 21 4 -9 -4 -11 -12 -5 8 -9 29 53 126 141 120 32 15 200 MB DIV 27 16 14 16 29 18 40 44 58 7 26 32 46 0 2 -5 40 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -3 -4 0 0 5 8 5 3 1 5 12 6 4 3 3 LAND (KM) 318 252 221 223 239 322 411 514 646 724 766 862 1061 1219 1364 1429 1233 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.3 24.7 25.3 25.4 26.2 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.7 64.6 65.1 65.5 66.1 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.3 65.7 65.0 64.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 7 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 4 7 9 8 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 57 61 62 60 52 38 39 44 45 40 31 30 30 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 14. 17. 24. 24. 28. 27. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 12. 16. 21. 22. 29. 34. 43. 45. 50. 51. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.1 62.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 12.8% 8.4% 8.0% 5.8% 9.1% 9.8% 10.7% Logistic: 4.1% 9.8% 5.5% 7.0% 2.9% 11.4% 6.3% 5.7% Bayesian: 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.6% 8.0% 4.8% 5.0% 2.9% 6.9% 5.4% 5.5% DTOPS: 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/03/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/03/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 49 50 52 52 57 61 66 67 73 79 88 90 95 96 94 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 48 48 53 57 62 63 69 75 84 86 91 92 90 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 44 49 53 58 59 65 71 80 82 87 88 86 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 37 42 46 51 52 58 64 73 75 80 81 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT