* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 44 49 55 63 67 75 80 88 94 99 95 99 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 44 49 55 63 67 75 80 88 94 99 95 99 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 39 41 44 49 55 61 70 78 86 91 87 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 15 14 11 11 13 17 25 24 18 16 17 17 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 3 3 5 1 2 -2 -6 -8 -3 -4 -1 -3 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 234 224 217 228 233 215 257 235 254 239 253 240 268 240 256 267 246 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 153 154 157 153 152 152 151 152 156 160 159 165 170 164 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 142 141 142 136 135 133 131 130 135 140 139 144 149 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 49 53 54 52 52 57 57 58 58 55 52 50 52 44 39 35 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 18 22 23 28 30 36 41 46 44 46 850 MB ENV VOR 23 29 25 6 -3 6 -7 1 3 23 28 68 111 80 -8 -29 -45 200 MB DIV 27 28 21 11 8 22 20 34 27 15 23 28 22 -18 -19 13 -5 700-850 TADV -1 0 -5 -1 0 1 4 3 4 0 0 0 4 2 -4 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 406 318 247 222 217 267 333 384 455 525 603 716 851 999 1185 1437 1285 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.2 23.0 23.7 24.3 25.1 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.9 62.8 63.8 64.5 65.2 66.0 66.8 67.2 67.3 67.2 66.8 66.1 65.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 6 7 8 10 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 50 55 62 62 60 50 40 36 36 43 41 31 31 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 11. 17. 19. 25. 30. 34. 29. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 20. 28. 32. 40. 45. 53. 59. 64. 60. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.9 61.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.06 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.8% 6.4% 6.3% 4.6% 8.1% 8.8% 12.5% Logistic: 0.9% 2.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 2.1% 2.7% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 3.9% 2.6% 2.4% 1.6% 3.4% 3.8% 5.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/03/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 40 44 49 55 63 67 75 80 88 94 99 95 99 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 42 47 53 61 65 73 78 86 92 97 93 97 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 43 49 57 61 69 74 82 88 93 89 93 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 36 42 50 54 62 67 75 81 86 82 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT