* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/03/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 39 41 45 51 58 63 66 72 76 85 95 101 100 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 39 41 45 51 58 63 66 72 76 85 95 101 100 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 40 42 44 49 52 55 59 65 73 84 92 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 13 15 14 15 11 18 19 31 23 17 7 11 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 4 1 0 3 2 3 -2 -5 -7 -4 1 1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 229 233 222 213 226 226 243 236 245 244 259 250 254 285 265 262 274 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.9 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 151 154 155 153 154 157 157 157 158 160 163 162 169 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 143 139 141 141 136 135 136 135 135 137 140 142 143 153 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 50 50 53 56 56 56 58 60 58 58 55 52 48 40 37 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 12 13 15 19 22 24 27 29 35 41 46 45 850 MB ENV VOR 35 20 26 28 8 -1 -2 -6 0 10 13 48 86 76 0 3 -12 200 MB DIV 9 18 25 23 16 18 20 40 27 39 20 24 7 11 -17 -16 -19 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -5 -1 2 2 4 7 3 2 -1 1 4 5 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 507 406 311 249 209 234 300 344 395 436 494 572 699 836 973 1225 1334 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.2 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.9 61.9 62.9 63.7 64.5 65.8 66.8 67.4 67.7 67.8 67.6 67.2 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 3 5 6 7 10 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 47 52 58 64 62 55 48 43 39 36 38 34 28 30 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 9. 11. 15. 16. 22. 29. 31. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 10. 16. 23. 28. 31. 37. 41. 50. 60. 66. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.6 60.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/03/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.7% 6.8% 6.5% 4.6% 8.0% 8.8% 12.9% Logistic: 1.4% 3.9% 1.7% 1.2% 0.4% 3.6% 5.4% 7.2% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 4.9% 2.9% 2.6% 1.7% 3.9% 4.7% 6.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/03/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/03/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 39 41 45 51 58 63 66 72 76 85 95 101 100 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 37 39 43 49 56 61 64 70 74 83 93 99 98 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 33 35 39 45 52 57 60 66 70 79 89 95 94 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 31 37 44 49 52 58 62 71 81 87 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT