* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 09/03/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 39 43 44 47 49 54 57 62 65 71 78 81 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 39 43 44 47 49 54 57 62 65 71 78 81 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 39 39 39 40 41 43 45 47 51 59 68 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 15 16 19 17 18 20 26 24 21 14 17 14 29 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 0 2 -1 0 0 3 1 1 -1 0 0 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 201 228 235 231 218 251 234 259 230 255 241 271 248 279 285 260 258 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 151 151 153 153 156 158 157 156 159 161 160 163 166 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 144 140 138 138 136 138 138 137 135 138 139 137 140 146 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 52 56 56 60 60 61 58 56 55 59 55 49 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 11 15 15 18 19 23 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 53 31 13 18 21 -6 0 -24 -15 -24 -11 -15 38 71 96 51 34 200 MB DIV 31 8 8 14 4 12 24 21 34 24 31 -6 16 22 45 -1 -22 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 0 -5 -3 -2 -1 -2 2 1 6 6 4 12 7 -4 LAND (KM) 623 513 410 338 279 251 292 389 478 543 620 742 876 993 1120 1324 1197 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 6 7 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 49 44 40 40 45 53 56 52 46 39 36 37 30 29 31 27 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -1. -1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 8. 9. 12. 14. 19. 22. 27. 30. 36. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 59.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 09/03/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.15 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.9% 6.4% 6.1% 4.3% 7.4% 8.2% 11.4% Logistic: 1.8% 5.6% 2.5% 2.1% 0.9% 5.4% 11.6% 15.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 5.4% 3.1% 2.7% 1.8% 4.3% 6.7% 8.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 09/03/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 09/03/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 39 43 44 47 49 54 57 62 65 71 78 81 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 37 41 42 45 47 52 55 60 63 69 76 79 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 37 38 41 43 48 51 56 59 65 72 75 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 30 31 34 36 41 44 49 52 58 65 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT