* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 09/02/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 37 40 46 54 58 65 67 73 77 85 88 87 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 37 40 46 54 58 65 67 73 77 85 88 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 34 37 41 45 50 54 60 67 75 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 14 11 13 11 14 12 15 13 26 17 15 11 12 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 2 2 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 208 204 228 234 220 232 245 260 253 268 264 276 279 280 279 251 276 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 29.0 28.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 152 153 150 148 151 152 151 151 150 148 145 145 157 153 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 143 142 138 135 134 133 131 131 135 134 135 138 155 147 118 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 51 55 58 60 62 62 62 61 58 62 63 63 61 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 11 13 16 18 20 21 26 29 36 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR 54 46 28 17 20 8 -7 -6 -18 -9 -6 -13 1 2 42 9 -66 200 MB DIV 38 34 17 31 31 18 5 21 38 30 31 -4 48 56 75 10 49 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -4 0 0 -4 2 2 8 6 5 5 8 3 17 10 12 LAND (KM) 750 644 540 453 382 291 281 311 371 401 480 619 858 1209 1706 1395 1053 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.7 21.9 22.3 22.8 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 59.6 60.6 61.5 62.3 63.5 64.5 64.9 65.0 64.7 63.8 62.2 60.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 7 9 14 18 27 29 22 HEAT CONTENT 40 46 43 38 36 43 47 47 44 40 31 28 40 28 32 15 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 12. 15. 22. 23. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 16. 24. 28. 35. 37. 43. 47. 55. 58. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.0 58.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 09/02/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 7.3% 5.6% 5.1% 3.6% 7.1% 8.2% 13.2% Logistic: 1.4% 4.7% 1.9% 1.3% 0.5% 3.6% 8.3% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 1.3% 4.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.4% 3.6% 5.6% 10.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 09/02/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 09/02/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 37 40 46 54 58 65 67 73 77 85 88 87 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 35 38 44 52 56 63 65 71 75 83 86 85 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 35 41 49 53 60 62 68 72 80 83 82 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 28 34 42 46 53 55 61 65 73 76 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT