* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 09/02/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 39 44 53 62 70 74 79 81 83 86 85 88 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 39 44 53 62 70 74 79 81 83 86 85 88 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 43 50 58 65 72 74 75 78 80 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 5 6 1 7 6 9 6 16 19 25 20 15 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 3 4 5 0 0 -4 1 -2 0 -5 -2 5 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 212 191 192 229 262 271 287 271 310 254 271 263 274 283 281 260 260 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.2 29.0 28.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 151 151 152 148 144 146 146 148 149 149 157 156 154 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 138 142 140 138 133 127 129 129 131 133 135 145 147 147 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 56 57 61 61 62 62 62 58 56 56 56 64 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 12 12 13 17 19 20 23 26 28 33 33 37 850 MB ENV VOR 53 54 49 31 23 18 -6 -3 -21 -15 -16 -13 -15 -1 18 19 21 200 MB DIV 27 43 44 29 30 17 19 26 39 52 36 45 40 59 75 65 75 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 1 4 3 4 4 10 7 20 21 44 LAND (KM) 795 768 680 592 506 389 323 351 399 504 618 774 979 1273 1679 1489 1099 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 19.1 19.7 20.6 21.3 22.2 23.0 24.0 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.5 59.3 60.1 60.9 62.1 63.0 63.4 63.6 63.2 62.5 61.4 59.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 5 5 6 8 11 15 21 27 28 HEAT CONTENT 49 48 51 55 46 40 39 33 32 27 29 38 32 31 29 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 2. 5. 5. 9. 12. 14. 18. 17. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 14. 23. 32. 40. 44. 49. 51. 53. 56. 55. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 57.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 09/02/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.5% 7.8% 6.9% 5.1% 9.2% 10.9% 18.8% Logistic: 1.6% 5.3% 2.6% 1.5% 0.4% 4.7% 12.2% 24.7% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% Consensus: 1.9% 5.8% 3.6% 2.8% 1.8% 4.8% 8.0% 14.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 09/02/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 09/02/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 39 44 53 62 70 74 79 81 83 86 85 88 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 37 42 51 60 68 72 77 79 81 84 83 86 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 33 38 47 56 64 68 73 75 77 80 79 82 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 31 40 49 57 61 66 68 70 73 72 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT