* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 09/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 45 52 60 68 79 85 89 91 95 97 99 98 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 45 52 60 68 79 85 89 91 95 97 99 98 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 42 47 54 63 73 79 83 87 91 91 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 7 9 4 4 6 10 9 17 19 22 13 12 17 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 2 1 2 3 1 -1 -3 -5 0 -4 -3 0 7 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 184 209 205 191 240 267 265 286 282 289 269 274 276 263 260 232 226 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.3 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 145 148 149 147 142 142 142 147 150 153 156 163 158 141 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 137 139 140 135 128 126 126 131 132 135 137 145 141 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 51 54 55 55 57 59 59 61 62 59 59 58 60 66 58 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 14 15 16 19 23 26 29 32 36 39 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 58 52 50 47 29 19 4 -8 -12 -15 -24 -10 -14 22 37 91 92 200 MB DIV 41 25 45 47 24 32 16 2 34 64 53 29 12 51 38 48 37 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -4 -2 0 0 5 4 8 7 6 6 8 14 17 9 LAND (KM) 849 820 784 687 601 458 376 398 477 608 759 930 1116 1350 1632 1505 1328 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.5 19.4 20.0 21.0 21.9 23.2 24.4 25.7 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.4 58.3 59.2 60.0 61.5 62.6 63.2 63.2 63.0 62.3 61.4 60.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 7 5 5 5 7 7 9 9 12 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 45 40 47 48 34 30 28 26 29 35 46 48 29 29 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. 30. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 22. 30. 38. 49. 55. 59. 61. 65. 67. 69. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 56.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 09/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 11.1% 7.6% 6.6% 4.9% 8.8% 10.5% 16.4% Logistic: 2.2% 6.8% 3.3% 1.7% 0.5% 4.2% 15.2% 25.6% Bayesian: 1.4% 3.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.1% 7.0% 4.0% 2.8% 1.8% 4.7% 8.9% 14.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 09/02/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 09/02/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 45 52 60 68 79 85 89 91 95 97 99 98 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 42 49 57 65 76 82 86 88 92 94 96 95 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 37 44 52 60 71 77 81 83 87 89 91 90 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 36 44 52 63 69 73 75 79 81 83 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT