* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 09/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 45 52 57 66 74 81 84 87 85 87 87 90 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 45 52 57 66 74 81 84 87 85 87 87 90 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 46 53 61 69 75 77 76 75 74 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 6 8 7 5 5 5 8 12 21 24 30 23 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 3 1 3 2 0 3 -3 0 -1 -2 -5 0 0 7 SHEAR DIR 149 195 233 201 191 248 201 255 246 278 244 271 273 276 271 274 264 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 146 145 148 148 142 140 141 144 147 147 150 154 155 145 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 138 136 139 136 128 124 125 127 129 130 132 136 138 130 126 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 54 54 57 60 59 62 61 59 58 55 56 57 62 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 15 17 20 22 25 26 29 31 35 850 MB ENV VOR 67 63 51 45 43 16 9 -13 -7 -24 -18 -18 -14 -3 12 15 19 200 MB DIV 35 43 11 32 42 27 24 9 26 23 47 30 25 39 24 82 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 1 2 5 3 6 7 12 11 22 19 LAND (KM) 908 876 854 771 686 519 433 412 480 573 726 867 1046 1253 1520 1688 1490 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.8 24.7 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.4 57.5 58.4 59.2 60.9 62.1 62.9 63.0 62.8 61.9 60.9 59.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 6 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 21 30 37 38 41 36 27 25 24 26 33 37 33 27 31 17 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 16. 16. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 22. 27. 36. 44. 51. 54. 57. 55. 57. 57. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.9 55.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 09/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.5% 8.3% 7.3% 5.4% 9.3% 10.6% 16.4% Logistic: 5.2% 19.9% 12.8% 10.1% 4.2% 18.4% 22.3% 40.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 6.5% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 1.9% 0.7% Consensus: 3.5% 13.0% 7.8% 5.8% 3.2% 9.8% 11.6% 19.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 09/02/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 09/02/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 45 52 57 66 74 81 84 87 85 87 87 90 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 42 49 54 63 71 78 81 84 82 84 84 87 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 43 48 57 65 72 75 78 76 78 78 81 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 35 40 49 57 64 67 70 68 70 70 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT