* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 09/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 44 51 59 66 75 82 88 91 88 90 93 101 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 44 51 59 66 75 82 88 91 88 90 93 101 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 44 50 58 69 79 85 88 85 81 78 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 5 4 5 4 3 3 9 4 12 15 20 25 25 22 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 5 2 4 3 2 1 6 0 2 -1 0 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 46 117 181 195 138 190 95 79 92 144 114 159 167 186 192 222 229 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 145 147 147 150 149 145 148 150 150 152 152 149 149 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 139 139 139 141 137 132 132 131 131 134 132 128 126 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 52 53 54 56 58 60 63 63 62 59 56 52 48 45 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 18 20 23 25 25 28 33 38 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 57 48 45 24 12 1 -9 -6 -15 -6 12 23 -35 -41 -44 200 MB DIV 42 40 47 33 36 29 23 15 15 27 29 3 9 -20 -16 -35 7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 1 0 0 2 1 5 4 4 3 1 2 2 7 4 LAND (KM) 924 865 819 793 768 549 406 309 263 270 305 344 433 478 482 504 567 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 2 3 4 4 2 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 38 49 49 52 38 39 46 49 46 48 48 42 40 39 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 10. 12. 10. 14. 17. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 21. 29. 36. 45. 52. 58. 61. 58. 60. 63. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 54.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 09/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 13.8% 9.1% 8.0% 6.0% 10.1% 11.4% 18.2% Logistic: 1.4% 6.9% 4.0% 2.0% 0.5% 4.9% 5.7% 16.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% Consensus: 1.9% 7.0% 4.6% 3.4% 2.1% 5.2% 5.8% 11.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 09/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 09/01/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 38 44 51 59 66 75 82 88 91 88 90 93 101 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 42 49 57 64 73 80 86 89 86 88 91 99 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 37 44 52 59 68 75 81 84 81 83 86 94 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 43 50 59 66 72 75 72 74 77 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT