* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 09/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 52 62 68 76 78 83 83 81 82 80 82 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 52 62 68 76 78 83 83 81 82 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 42 47 53 60 67 71 73 71 69 67 66 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 6 5 2 3 3 4 12 14 23 23 32 30 32 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 -1 1 0 0 -2 -4 0 -2 -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 32 54 109 149 199 161 271 269 293 258 281 276 285 288 286 277 262 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.4 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 139 141 142 145 141 140 144 147 150 152 156 161 159 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 130 131 133 133 134 128 125 126 128 129 129 133 138 138 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 58 57 58 56 60 58 62 59 56 56 54 58 61 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 12 11 13 13 17 18 22 24 25 29 30 33 850 MB ENV VOR 60 54 58 53 46 32 3 4 -17 -7 -16 -12 -7 0 5 36 81 200 MB DIV 41 57 64 54 28 32 12 17 18 36 38 37 20 19 34 34 55 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 3 -1 2 0 2 3 5 2 3 5 13 13 21 LAND (KM) 1085 1041 1017 983 975 908 771 696 692 773 885 1010 1117 1209 1349 1552 1537 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.7 18.9 20.1 21.2 22.4 23.7 24.9 25.9 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.5 53.2 53.8 54.6 55.4 57.1 58.6 59.8 60.7 61.0 60.9 60.3 59.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 5 8 11 15 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 18 19 21 24 35 34 30 39 37 39 41 34 29 38 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 9. 7. 3. -1. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -0. -0. 4. 5. 9. 11. 11. 14. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 32. 38. 46. 48. 53. 53. 51. 52. 50. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 52.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 09/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 9.0% 6.7% 6.0% 4.2% 8.5% 10.1% 15.8% Logistic: 1.8% 12.4% 5.8% 3.0% 1.3% 9.8% 20.3% 29.8% Bayesian: 1.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 2.7% 1.5% Consensus: 1.6% 7.6% 4.3% 3.0% 1.9% 6.3% 11.0% 15.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 09/01/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 09/01/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 46 52 62 68 76 78 83 83 81 82 80 82 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 43 49 59 65 73 75 80 80 78 79 77 79 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 44 54 60 68 70 75 75 73 74 72 74 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 35 45 51 59 61 66 66 64 65 63 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT