* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 09/01/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 57 66 74 79 85 89 86 88 85 83 81 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 49 57 66 74 79 85 89 86 88 85 83 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 44 51 58 65 72 78 79 76 72 68 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 9 5 5 1 3 4 10 14 21 20 30 29 34 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -5 -2 -2 -1 -3 -9 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 44 37 61 101 153 130 234 300 284 283 279 273 282 282 279 271 252 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 140 140 139 139 140 141 146 149 150 150 149 149 154 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 131 132 132 131 129 128 131 132 131 130 128 127 132 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 58 56 56 57 57 60 60 59 59 58 57 56 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 12 13 14 15 16 21 23 23 28 29 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR 63 56 47 54 52 35 17 3 -5 -14 -14 -6 -13 0 5 19 17 200 MB DIV 39 43 57 64 60 19 19 25 7 21 44 44 25 53 47 59 81 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -2 1 0 3 3 2 5 5 8 6 7 10 15 23 LAND (KM) 1140 1100 1063 1031 1007 991 845 749 708 745 844 972 1089 1199 1316 1490 1690 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.4 18.6 19.7 20.9 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.4 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.8 52.4 53.1 53.8 54.6 56.3 57.8 59.1 60.1 60.7 60.7 60.2 59.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 7 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 20 20 20 22 28 37 33 41 40 34 30 27 28 31 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 11. 8. 5. 1. -3. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 9. 12. 10. 15. 15. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 36. 44. 49. 55. 59. 56. 58. 55. 53. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 51.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 09/01/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 8.7% 6.5% 5.7% 4.1% 8.4% 10.1% 16.5% Logistic: 1.3% 7.9% 3.3% 1.1% 0.4% 3.8% 15.7% 29.9% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.3% 0.9% Consensus: 1.5% 6.1% 3.5% 2.3% 1.5% 4.3% 9.4% 15.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 09/01/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 09/01/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 49 57 66 74 79 85 89 86 88 85 83 81 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 46 54 63 71 76 82 86 83 85 82 80 78 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 40 48 57 65 70 76 80 77 79 76 74 72 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 39 48 56 61 67 71 68 70 67 65 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT