* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 09/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 48 55 62 70 74 80 82 81 80 77 80 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 48 55 62 70 74 80 82 81 80 77 80 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 36 42 50 55 60 66 71 74 72 68 64 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 6 7 5 5 7 5 13 16 24 25 33 27 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -6 -5 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 103 95 38 60 117 220 211 301 239 278 271 275 270 273 266 264 246 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 139 140 140 141 141 140 145 149 150 151 151 152 154 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 131 132 132 134 131 129 130 133 131 131 130 129 133 135 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.5 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 58 56 56 56 57 58 58 62 60 58 57 59 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 13 13 14 16 17 20 23 24 25 26 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 73 68 61 54 62 50 37 10 7 -12 -6 -16 -14 -9 12 33 51 200 MB DIV 22 41 38 45 45 37 26 20 20 9 38 24 30 51 66 93 84 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 3 -2 3 1 3 3 4 3 4 3 11 13 LAND (KM) 1152 1154 1112 1067 1029 985 870 727 652 654 733 834 954 1037 1159 1308 1547 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 18.1 19.3 20.3 21.4 22.4 23.6 24.6 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.2 51.7 52.4 53.2 54.0 55.8 57.5 59.1 60.4 61.2 61.5 61.3 60.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 9 11 10 9 6 7 6 5 5 4 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 25 21 21 21 23 25 37 34 32 37 39 42 43 34 27 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 32. 40. 44. 50. 52. 51. 50. 47. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 51.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 09/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.8% 8.6% 7.6% 5.6% 9.5% 10.6% 16.1% Logistic: 1.6% 8.5% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 4.9% 12.6% 26.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 3.8% 0.2% Consensus: 2.0% 8.0% 4.6% 3.0% 2.0% 5.2% 9.0% 14.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 09/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 09/01/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 48 55 62 70 74 80 82 81 80 77 80 80 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 45 52 59 67 71 77 79 78 77 74 77 77 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 40 47 54 62 66 72 74 73 72 69 72 72 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 38 45 53 57 63 65 64 63 60 63 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT