* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/31/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 50 58 66 72 76 78 82 84 84 82 81 79 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 50 58 66 72 76 78 82 84 84 82 81 79 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 43 52 60 65 69 73 76 75 73 69 65 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 2 6 8 5 5 8 5 10 15 21 17 31 31 36 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -3 -6 -6 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 1 3 0 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 75 104 100 18 49 182 212 245 305 255 268 270 263 263 268 265 260 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 139 141 140 139 141 144 148 148 149 150 151 154 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 129 131 133 132 131 130 130 131 130 129 130 130 133 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 58 57 59 58 58 59 60 64 61 60 59 60 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 11 13 15 16 17 18 21 23 25 26 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 64 71 65 54 46 51 37 18 1 -9 -12 -17 -8 -11 6 18 41 200 MB DIV 15 24 42 36 39 55 32 18 23 20 27 21 40 30 48 43 63 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -1 2 0 3 3 4 4 4 5 7 7 10 14 LAND (KM) 1144 1150 1141 1085 1049 1004 930 774 697 700 763 847 960 1088 1216 1379 1597 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.8 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.4 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.8 51.3 51.9 52.7 53.5 55.1 56.9 58.6 59.9 60.6 60.9 60.8 60.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 5 5 6 5 7 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 31 23 20 21 22 22 34 35 35 42 39 36 35 29 29 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 28. 36. 42. 46. 48. 52. 54. 54. 52. 51. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 50.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/31/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 15.3% 9.9% 8.9% 6.5% 10.4% 10.9% 15.3% Logistic: 10.7% 31.7% 21.4% 18.2% 10.6% 36.4% 45.7% 55.9% Bayesian: 4.5% 27.4% 10.5% 2.3% 0.7% 7.5% 17.0% 2.8% Consensus: 6.9% 24.8% 14.0% 9.8% 5.9% 18.1% 24.6% 24.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/31/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/31/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 42 50 58 66 72 76 78 82 84 84 82 81 79 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 47 55 63 69 73 75 79 81 81 79 78 76 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 41 49 57 63 67 69 73 75 75 73 72 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 39 47 53 57 59 63 65 65 63 62 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT