* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/31/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 38 45 54 63 70 77 81 85 90 91 90 90 86 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 38 45 54 63 70 77 81 85 90 91 90 90 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 47 56 63 69 74 79 83 82 80 75 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 8 2 6 7 4 5 7 4 12 12 17 25 35 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -4 -5 -5 -1 -2 0 2 0 0 1 1 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 41 76 120 157 35 79 242 238 268 199 261 248 271 269 276 267 271 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 137 140 141 140 141 144 149 150 153 153 155 156 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 127 129 133 133 131 132 132 132 132 132 133 134 134 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 62 60 60 59 59 55 59 61 63 62 60 61 63 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 13 14 16 17 18 23 25 28 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 77 68 72 64 52 49 39 38 14 7 -7 -2 -5 0 4 29 49 200 MB DIV 24 32 39 47 30 44 37 41 27 29 7 40 35 36 29 74 63 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 5 2 2 2 2 3 6 11 22 LAND (KM) 1123 1137 1144 1122 1067 1022 1002 840 729 699 724 811 905 1056 1194 1376 1602 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.3 17.4 18.6 20.0 21.3 22.5 23.5 24.6 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.5 51.0 51.5 52.1 52.9 54.4 56.2 57.9 59.5 60.7 61.5 61.7 61.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 9 9 10 11 10 6 6 5 6 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 38 28 22 20 21 22 29 36 35 37 39 45 51 35 28 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 11. 13. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 33. 40. 47. 51. 55. 60. 61. 60. 60. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 50.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/31/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 12.2% 8.2% 7.0% 5.2% 9.0% 10.9% 18.8% Logistic: 2.5% 11.7% 6.0% 2.0% 0.8% 7.1% 18.6% 40.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 2.0% 4.2% Consensus: 2.3% 9.2% 5.2% 3.1% 2.0% 5.9% 10.5% 21.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/31/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/31/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 38 45 54 63 70 77 81 85 90 91 90 90 86 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 42 51 60 67 74 78 82 87 88 87 87 83 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 47 56 63 70 74 78 83 84 83 83 79 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 39 48 55 62 66 70 75 76 75 75 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT