* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/31/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 50 59 69 76 81 86 88 90 93 92 88 88 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 50 59 69 76 81 86 88 90 93 92 88 88 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 34 36 43 52 63 72 75 77 79 82 83 80 77 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 11 9 2 5 2 3 8 3 10 15 21 23 26 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -2 -4 0 0 0 2 0 -3 -1 -1 4 0 8 SHEAR DIR 81 50 87 121 139 47 254 242 230 274 266 270 271 266 267 264 265 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.5 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 133 131 130 134 138 138 131 133 135 141 142 152 156 159 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 123 122 122 126 131 129 120 120 120 124 124 130 132 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 60 59 58 56 54 56 58 60 62 64 63 65 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 12 12 14 16 17 20 21 24 28 30 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 84 82 74 75 68 50 54 44 33 17 7 1 -3 4 9 42 62 200 MB DIV 37 32 39 58 56 29 44 41 24 15 -5 24 16 45 30 61 43 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 -1 -2 0 2 4 2 3 2 2 3 4 8 11 26 LAND (KM) 1132 1144 1172 1179 1134 1061 1035 917 792 734 741 799 905 1032 1160 1283 1419 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.2 17.2 18.3 19.7 21.0 22.3 23.4 24.6 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.5 50.9 51.4 52.1 53.7 55.3 57.1 58.7 60.1 61.1 61.9 62.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 6 8 9 11 11 10 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 37 26 17 18 22 23 30 23 29 33 47 46 36 35 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 12. 10. 8. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 13. 15. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 20. 29. 39. 46. 51. 56. 58. 60. 63. 62. 58. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 50.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/31/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 12.0% 8.3% 7.5% 5.5% 9.3% 10.5% 15.9% Logistic: 3.9% 15.0% 8.3% 6.3% 2.7% 14.6% 27.4% 33.6% Bayesian: 2.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 5.4% 3.5% Consensus: 3.2% 10.2% 6.0% 4.6% 2.7% 8.5% 14.5% 17.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/31/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/31/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 41 50 59 69 76 81 86 88 90 93 92 88 88 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 46 55 65 72 77 82 84 86 89 88 84 84 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 41 50 60 67 72 77 79 81 84 83 79 79 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 41 51 58 63 68 70 72 75 74 70 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT