* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/31/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 47 55 63 70 73 78 80 84 84 83 84 85 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 47 55 63 70 73 78 80 84 84 83 84 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 45 52 61 69 70 71 73 76 76 75 74 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 9 8 3 4 9 8 11 6 13 14 21 24 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 102 42 52 91 132 67 133 257 230 263 233 279 255 268 258 263 258 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 132 130 132 136 137 134 132 135 139 142 140 148 153 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 127 123 121 124 127 128 123 120 120 123 123 122 126 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 59 58 57 55 55 56 55 57 54 55 55 55 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 12 13 13 15 16 19 20 21 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 87 80 75 71 70 59 49 45 42 15 14 -4 3 -11 -15 -11 0 200 MB DIV 32 35 24 40 61 34 44 32 29 11 14 9 11 7 17 27 24 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 -1 2 -1 2 0 2 -1 0 0 0 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1144 1143 1168 1193 1204 1111 1071 1005 843 735 684 681 739 825 937 1038 1166 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.1 18.1 19.2 20.5 21.6 22.5 23.3 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.5 50.0 50.4 50.9 51.4 53.0 54.5 56.2 58.0 59.6 60.9 61.9 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 9 9 11 10 9 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 42 45 35 25 18 22 21 28 26 24 27 32 38 45 39 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 29. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -1. -1. 3. 3. 3. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 25. 33. 40. 43. 48. 50. 54. 54. 53. 54. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 49.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/31/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.0% 8.7% 7.7% 5.6% 9.5% 11.0% 16.2% Logistic: 4.3% 15.4% 8.5% 4.8% 1.9% 18.5% 29.7% 40.7% Bayesian: 4.0% 12.4% 6.3% 0.6% 0.1% 4.5% 19.4% 6.3% Consensus: 4.3% 13.6% 7.9% 4.4% 2.5% 10.9% 20.0% 21.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/31/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/31/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 41 47 55 63 70 73 78 80 84 84 83 84 85 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 43 51 59 66 69 74 76 80 80 79 80 81 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 37 45 53 60 63 68 70 74 74 73 74 75 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 36 44 51 54 59 61 65 65 64 65 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT