* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/30/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 45 54 62 69 72 74 79 81 84 85 86 87 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 45 54 62 69 72 74 79 81 84 85 86 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 50 59 68 71 71 73 75 77 78 78 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 10 10 4 5 7 7 11 8 13 13 21 22 30 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -2 -2 -5 -4 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 74 92 44 52 89 159 60 193 221 240 258 263 257 269 258 264 257 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 137 136 132 131 133 137 137 131 132 134 138 143 151 155 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 128 127 123 122 124 129 127 119 118 118 120 123 129 132 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 59 58 57 54 53 54 54 56 54 55 54 54 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 10 11 12 12 13 14 16 18 20 22 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 84 86 78 75 68 58 44 42 36 15 4 -8 -4 -11 -9 -18 7 200 MB DIV 45 38 37 33 44 40 49 32 22 0 19 3 17 10 12 21 46 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 1 0 1 2 4 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 1144 1144 1147 1168 1193 1163 1114 1095 949 846 792 802 867 963 1089 1225 1370 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.7 17.8 18.9 20.3 21.6 22.8 23.8 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.1 49.5 49.9 50.4 50.9 52.1 53.6 55.2 56.9 58.4 59.8 60.7 61.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 8 9 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 31 40 45 35 18 22 23 26 29 24 30 32 45 44 31 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. 1. 3. 5. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 24. 32. 39. 42. 44. 49. 51. 54. 55. 56. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 49.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/30/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.4% 8.9% 7.7% 5.6% 9.3% 10.8% 16.2% Logistic: 4.8% 12.5% 7.2% 3.4% 1.0% 9.5% 18.7% 22.1% Bayesian: 5.0% 11.4% 8.8% 1.1% 0.5% 7.3% 21.4% 5.6% Consensus: 4.7% 12.4% 8.3% 4.1% 2.4% 8.7% 17.0% 14.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/30/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/30/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 40 45 54 62 69 72 74 79 81 84 85 86 87 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 41 50 58 65 68 70 75 77 80 81 82 83 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 44 52 59 62 64 69 71 74 75 76 77 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 36 44 51 54 56 61 63 66 67 68 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT