* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/30/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 48 58 68 72 74 79 82 84 88 89 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 48 58 68 72 74 79 82 84 88 89 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 46 56 63 66 69 73 78 80 80 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 9 9 11 12 10 4 2 6 7 10 8 17 22 25 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 2 2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 33 56 54 35 55 120 37 129 242 211 260 248 264 274 275 267 263 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 28.1 28.9 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 133 135 135 131 131 134 135 133 130 137 149 158 164 163 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 122 125 126 122 124 126 127 122 118 122 130 136 140 138 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 60 58 60 59 59 56 53 51 53 55 57 57 53 52 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 12 13 11 12 12 16 16 16 18 19 21 26 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 78 78 81 79 67 57 45 42 36 26 5 -3 -17 -21 -14 -4 19 200 MB DIV 48 41 37 35 31 29 48 50 29 14 6 6 -8 20 25 38 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 7 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 LAND (KM) 1150 1147 1163 1179 1211 1270 1229 1209 1107 986 918 948 1021 1164 1336 1346 1201 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.6 17.6 19.0 20.5 22.2 23.7 25.2 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.3 48.6 48.9 49.2 49.6 50.5 52.0 53.6 55.4 57.2 59.0 60.3 61.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 7 10 11 12 11 11 9 8 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 22 27 36 36 22 32 26 31 20 26 50 36 33 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 11. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 7. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 23. 33. 43. 47. 49. 54. 57. 60. 63. 64. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 48.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/30/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 11.8% 8.1% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 20.1% 9.9% 5.9% 3.5% 17.6% 31.0% 45.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 14.2% 3.8% 0.3% 0.2% 2.3% 10.6% 5.5% Consensus: 3.0% 15.3% 7.3% 4.4% 1.2% 6.6% 17.2% 17.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/30/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/30/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 39 48 58 68 72 74 79 82 84 88 89 88 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 45 55 65 69 71 76 79 81 85 86 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 40 50 60 64 66 71 74 76 80 81 80 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 32 42 52 56 58 63 66 68 72 73 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT