* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/30/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 35 41 54 62 69 72 77 77 81 81 80 84 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 35 41 54 62 69 72 77 77 81 81 80 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 24 24 27 31 37 45 54 60 63 68 72 76 79 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 6 7 6 10 3 2 8 6 12 9 15 19 26 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 143 118 75 72 36 90 141 78 212 201 232 258 272 270 275 269 271 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.7 28.0 27.6 27.9 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 130 131 132 129 129 133 138 132 136 145 153 152 154 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 119 121 123 120 121 125 130 123 125 131 134 132 131 129 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 56 57 59 59 59 57 55 51 51 51 54 59 57 57 55 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 14 15 17 17 19 19 22 24 27 32 850 MB ENV VOR 66 78 73 80 77 61 53 46 44 32 13 4 -13 -7 -28 2 -12 200 MB DIV 31 26 37 41 34 28 33 57 31 20 5 18 -2 40 36 52 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 4 5 4 0 2 1 5 9 LAND (KM) 1184 1180 1177 1193 1204 1266 1242 1192 1098 936 851 861 935 1067 1214 1294 1298 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.5 17.4 18.7 20.0 21.7 23.3 24.9 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.0 48.3 48.6 48.9 49.3 50.3 51.7 53.5 55.4 57.5 59.5 61.3 62.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 6 7 10 11 12 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 18 21 28 36 23 32 26 32 27 35 48 26 22 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. -1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 16. 29. 37. 44. 47. 52. 52. 56. 56. 55. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 48.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/30/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 11.4% 8.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 6.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 3.7% 6.8% 23.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.5% 6.5% 3.8% 2.6% 0.1% 1.3% 5.5% 7.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/30/22 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/30/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 27 29 35 41 54 62 69 72 77 77 81 81 80 84 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 34 40 53 61 68 71 76 76 80 80 79 83 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 37 50 58 65 68 73 73 77 77 76 80 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 42 50 57 60 65 65 69 69 68 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT