* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/30/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 42 46 54 63 70 75 79 83 84 84 87 88 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 42 46 54 63 70 75 79 83 84 84 87 88 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 47 56 67 74 78 81 83 85 86 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 2 6 6 6 8 2 3 4 6 7 8 18 23 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 2 0 -2 -1 -4 0 2 3 1 0 -1 -2 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 136 146 124 86 101 41 98 83 198 234 190 250 244 273 274 284 273 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.3 27.8 28.3 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 129 130 131 134 129 131 137 142 135 142 150 151 155 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 118 119 120 125 120 124 130 135 125 130 135 133 135 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 58 57 59 58 58 57 54 51 50 52 57 61 56 54 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 15 15 16 18 20 21 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 57 65 68 69 76 65 56 42 39 28 23 0 -8 -29 -12 -7 32 200 MB DIV 35 39 21 20 9 22 28 32 53 18 14 -3 3 8 37 31 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 3 4 1 0 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 1194 1175 1171 1172 1183 1192 1236 1167 1118 994 855 805 867 996 1177 1334 1252 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.5 20.0 21.8 23.5 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.8 48.2 48.5 48.7 48.9 49.8 50.9 52.5 54.3 56.4 58.4 60.3 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 2 4 6 7 10 11 13 12 12 10 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 19 21 37 31 19 28 26 31 37 40 44 25 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 12. 16. 25. 33. 40. 45. 49. 53. 54. 54. 57. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 47.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/30/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 11.3% 8.0% 7.2% 5.2% 9.1% 10.0% 15.5% Logistic: 1.4% 6.1% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 4.0% 7.7% 20.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 1.7% 6.4% 3.8% 2.9% 1.9% 4.5% 6.0% 11.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/30/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/30/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 42 46 54 63 70 75 79 83 84 84 87 88 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 40 44 52 61 68 73 77 81 82 82 85 86 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 36 40 48 57 64 69 73 77 78 78 81 82 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 28 32 40 49 56 61 65 69 70 70 73 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT