* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/29/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 45 51 60 67 76 81 84 86 89 90 92 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 45 51 60 67 76 81 84 86 89 90 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 38 44 52 62 71 75 77 82 84 88 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 3 6 3 6 3 1 11 5 10 6 10 15 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 3 0 0 -4 -1 -3 0 1 0 1 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 109 132 146 147 93 53 63 219 215 226 224 218 218 249 261 270 255 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 129 129 130 132 131 128 134 139 138 139 146 154 154 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 120 118 117 118 122 122 121 127 132 130 130 134 138 136 133 129 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 55 56 59 58 60 60 57 56 55 53 51 54 61 60 60 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 13 15 19 20 21 22 25 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 47 59 68 75 73 78 63 55 42 45 34 13 7 -6 -4 15 24 200 MB DIV 34 47 46 24 22 16 27 37 37 34 22 -10 26 5 24 24 67 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 2 2 9 2 -1 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 1209 1190 1180 1167 1172 1184 1228 1220 1152 1099 893 772 783 875 1054 1165 1045 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.9 18.0 19.2 20.8 22.5 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.1 48.3 48.6 48.7 49.3 50.2 51.6 53.3 55.3 57.6 59.8 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 2 2 2 5 6 9 11 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 18 19 27 38 22 25 25 32 27 33 38 24 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -6. -4. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 21. 30. 37. 46. 51. 54. 56. 59. 60. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 47.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/29/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.0% 8.8% 7.7% 5.6% 9.5% 10.7% 16.2% Logistic: 1.3% 4.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 3.0% 3.9% 17.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 1.8% 6.3% 4.1% 2.9% 2.0% 4.4% 4.9% 11.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/29/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/29/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 34 39 45 51 60 67 76 81 84 86 89 90 92 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 38 44 50 59 66 75 80 83 85 88 89 91 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 34 40 46 55 62 71 76 79 81 84 85 87 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 32 38 47 54 63 68 71 73 76 77 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT