* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/29/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 37 43 49 55 62 71 78 79 81 83 87 92 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 37 43 49 55 62 71 78 79 81 83 87 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 33 36 40 46 55 65 72 74 75 79 85 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 13 11 4 6 4 4 5 7 13 9 8 8 4 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 -5 0 -2 5 2 4 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 131 119 132 150 144 111 20 115 219 196 220 176 213 204 242 240 240 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 127 127 130 130 128 130 135 142 139 145 151 153 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 116 115 115 119 120 119 123 127 137 131 135 138 139 135 131 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 59 58 60 57 56 54 53 51 54 56 59 59 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 11 12 16 19 19 19 20 22 27 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 60 66 69 83 67 60 54 54 47 46 14 6 -7 11 14 200 MB DIV 24 36 34 17 11 8 20 22 16 45 32 35 1 13 15 29 68 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 2 2 1 7 4 6 5 LAND (KM) 1253 1254 1248 1239 1234 1245 1263 1301 1236 1164 993 785 686 723 870 1020 978 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.8 19.9 21.3 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.7 47.2 47.5 47.7 47.8 48.2 49.1 50.2 52.0 54.0 56.4 58.9 61.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 13 13 12 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 18 18 17 18 26 36 23 32 26 35 30 33 30 38 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -4. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 32. 41. 48. 49. 51. 53. 57. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 46.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/29/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 10.0% 7.3% 6.5% 4.6% 8.3% 9.8% 15.3% Logistic: 1.2% 3.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 1.9% 4.5% 14.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.5% 5.0% 3.2% 2.4% 1.6% 3.5% 4.8% 9.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/29/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/29/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 37 43 49 55 62 71 78 79 81 83 87 92 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 35 41 47 53 60 69 76 77 79 81 85 90 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 38 44 50 57 66 73 74 76 78 82 87 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 37 43 50 59 66 67 69 71 75 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT