* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/29/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 46 51 58 66 71 72 75 77 79 83 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 46 51 58 66 71 72 75 77 79 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 37 42 49 57 63 67 70 74 79 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 13 14 12 7 6 3 5 4 10 6 8 8 12 18 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 1 0 0 3 1 1 -2 -2 0 0 5 -1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 133 108 106 113 133 113 158 82 240 229 204 210 236 276 297 283 279 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 128 128 130 131 131 133 138 137 140 139 153 152 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 120 119 116 116 118 122 122 125 130 130 132 129 140 135 134 131 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 61 61 61 60 56 54 50 49 50 52 57 59 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 13 16 17 17 18 19 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 46 59 64 69 73 54 50 40 40 24 8 -1 -19 -12 -16 200 MB DIV 48 37 40 29 27 19 7 48 25 51 36 0 -12 2 -22 13 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 4 2 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1291 1298 1304 1316 1319 1334 1352 1391 1429 1343 1220 1020 895 891 989 1131 1091 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.5 16.1 17.0 18.0 19.2 20.5 22.1 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.5 45.8 46.0 46.1 46.2 46.6 47.4 48.5 50.0 52.0 54.3 56.8 59.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 2 3 6 8 10 12 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 27 27 27 27 23 25 40 32 37 36 29 42 28 23 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 16. 21. 28. 36. 41. 42. 45. 47. 49. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 45.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/29/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.3% 7.9% 7.1% 5.1% 8.7% 9.6% 14.8% Logistic: 1.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 2.6% 4.1% 11.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 1.8% 6.1% 3.3% 2.5% 1.8% 3.9% 4.7% 8.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/29/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/29/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 46 51 58 66 71 72 75 77 79 83 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 35 38 45 50 57 65 70 71 74 76 78 82 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 31 34 41 46 53 61 66 67 70 72 74 78 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 27 34 39 46 54 59 60 63 65 67 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT