* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 33 34 36 39 44 51 56 62 66 70 73 77 80 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 34 36 39 44 51 56 62 66 70 73 77 80 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 34 36 38 43 50 58 66 71 74 75 78 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 4 6 5 6 11 7 13 11 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 9 5 5 4 3 0 1 -3 -4 0 0 0 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 111 131 129 118 116 134 81 100 84 175 175 207 214 243 275 292 284 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 131 130 129 131 134 136 136 139 141 144 147 151 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 129 124 120 118 117 120 124 127 129 133 136 137 138 138 140 140 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 59 58 59 61 59 55 54 53 53 53 54 56 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 43 45 42 35 30 56 65 70 48 38 38 29 22 11 0 -16 -14 200 MB DIV 42 72 61 32 26 4 7 -3 15 16 53 30 15 1 19 0 23 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1298 1247 1221 1217 1215 1214 1239 1271 1311 1304 1198 1075 851 700 691 746 743 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.6 17.4 18.5 19.9 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.9 45.9 46.6 47.0 47.2 47.4 47.7 48.3 49.4 51.0 53.2 55.6 58.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 3 2 1 3 6 8 11 12 15 15 14 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 24 21 19 19 18 19 22 34 36 36 28 38 33 32 39 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 21. 26. 32. 36. 40. 43. 47. 50. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 44.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.0% 9.1% 7.5% 5.4% 9.1% 10.6% 16.2% Logistic: 1.8% 5.4% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 2.4% 4.0% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 1.9% Consensus: 2.3% 7.7% 4.2% 2.7% 1.9% 4.0% 5.2% 10.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/28/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 32 33 34 36 39 44 51 56 62 66 70 73 77 80 84 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 33 36 41 48 53 59 63 67 70 74 77 81 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 33 38 45 50 56 60 64 67 71 74 78 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 31 38 43 49 53 57 60 64 67 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT