* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912022 08/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 31 33 35 40 48 53 59 65 72 77 79 86 89 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 31 33 35 40 48 53 59 65 72 77 79 86 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 33 32 31 30 31 35 40 48 58 68 76 80 84 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 16 15 12 4 5 4 6 3 4 5 2 8 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 11 10 6 3 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 2 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 165 159 158 171 171 160 180 118 67 128 167 160 250 221 288 289 315 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 133 131 132 132 134 136 136 134 138 140 144 144 144 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 132 127 123 122 120 122 124 127 125 131 133 137 134 133 136 136 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 64 61 60 59 56 57 59 55 54 52 52 50 52 54 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 12 13 13 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 49 39 39 32 33 52 61 64 53 44 34 39 26 25 4 10 -13 200 MB DIV 35 47 66 53 39 17 -4 0 25 35 48 57 23 23 18 29 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1424 1379 1350 1324 1293 1250 1217 1223 1264 1292 1191 1131 904 725 602 570 590 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.0 19.1 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.8 45.1 46.0 46.8 47.4 48.1 48.6 49.1 49.8 51.0 52.8 54.9 57.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 7 5 3 3 3 6 8 11 12 13 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 27 28 25 22 20 22 28 37 35 31 30 31 36 25 28 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -12. -11. -11. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 5. 10. 18. 23. 29. 35. 42. 47. 49. 56. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 43.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912022 INVEST 08/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 11.6% 7.7% 6.2% 4.4% 7.9% 9.9% 16.5% Logistic: 2.7% 4.9% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 1.4% 2.0% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 2.5% Consensus: 2.4% 6.3% 3.6% 2.3% 1.6% 3.3% 4.1% 8.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912022 INVEST 08/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912022 INVEST 08/28/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 31 31 33 35 40 48 53 59 65 72 77 79 86 89 18HR AGO 30 29 30 29 29 31 33 38 46 51 57 63 70 75 77 84 87 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 27 29 34 42 47 53 59 66 71 73 80 83 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 24 29 37 42 48 54 61 66 68 75 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT